After a postponement in Colorado, we secured a 2-0 night after Corey Seager and Gunnar Henderson both homered. That brought us to 6-4 on the week. Today, the goal is to close the week on a high note, but as always we are going for a sweep.
Today, I have my eye on a pair of K props as Bryce Elder and the Braves visit the Marlins fresh off clinching the NL East title. Tarik Skubal and the Tigers will be in Anaheim to battle the Angels.
Zack Greinke does not get many strikeouts these days and he may be in a long night going against his former Astros teammates. Jose Altuve will look to get the Astros going early, but first let's begin in Miami.
MLB Player Props For Friday, September 15
Bryce Elder Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Braves vs Marlins | 6:40 p.m. ET
Back in May, we backed Bryce Elder's strikeouts against this Marlins team and he struck out six in seven scoreless innings. On that night, the line was at 4.5, so I was certainly surprised to see this line at 3.5 today.
Now, the Marlins have made a couple of additions to their lineup since then, adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger. Bell has not struck out against Elder yet, but he is just 1-for-6 against him. Burger has not faced Elder in his career, but he has a 28.5% Strikeout Rate, making him a likely K target as a right-handed batter.
Now, no one is going to confuse Elder for Spencer Strider, but he does have 120 strikeouts in 162 and 1/3 innings. He has hit this line in each of his last three starts and four of his last six. That includes a nine-strikeout performance in his last outing against Pittsburgh.
Elder has already has thrown a career-high in innings and he will be counted on in the playoffs as well. As a result, I could see manager Brian Snitker only giving him five today. However, Elder has hit this line in five of his career six starts against the Marlins, including two starts when he went five innings or less. Four strikeouts in five innings is a reasonable expectation for tonight.
Pick: Bryce Elder Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Jose Altuve Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125)
Astros vs Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET
This season, Zack Greinke is 1-15 with a 5.47 ERA this season. It is a far cry from when Greinke went 22-10 with a 3.89 ERA in parts of three seasons with the Astros from 2019-2021. In those years, the Astros won the AL Pennant twice. However, don't expect Greinke to exchange warm and fuzzies when Jose Altuve steps in the batter's box.
Against his former teammate, Altuve is 10-for-28 with a double, home run, and four runs batted in. With his success against Greinke, I was debating on which prop I liked best for Altuve. However, I went with this combo because as the leadoff hitter in a prime matchup, I am expecting Altuve to score at least once, if not twice. He has scored a run in four of his past five games and you can take him to score him to score a run at -125 on DraftKings and two runs at +230 on FanDuel.
Altuve has hit this line in three of his past nine games but he has had two hits + runs + batted in five of his past nine games. This line is at 2.5 tonight likely because of his success against Greinke. In the three games Altuve hit this line, he homered in all of them, hitting six total. A home run tonight is not out of the question, but Altuve has a hit in seven of his past nine games.
Additionally, Altuve is known for being an aggressive hitter, but this year he has shown more patience. In the Statcast era, Altuve has a career high 11.8% Walk Rate and he has drawn 40 walks in just 75 games this season. So if Altuve gets five plate appearances tonight and goes 1-for4 with a walk and two runs scored, we will still cash this line at plus odds.
Pick: Jose Altuve Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125)
Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Tigers vs Angels | 9:38 p.m. ET
The Tigers have had a promising group of young pitching prospects for several years, but they have battled injuries. Tarik Skubal is included in that group, but when healthy, he has shown why he may emerge to be the ace of the staff. Last season, Skubal had 3.52 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 117 and 2/3 innings in 21 starts. This season, Skubal has been limited to 12 starts, but he is 5-3 (currently his first season above .500) with 3.47 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 62 and 1/3 innings.
Skubal has punched out six or more in six of his last seven starts and eight of 12 starts this season. He had nine in just five innings in his last start against the White Sox. Now, he gets the Angels without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. The Angels have sixth-highest strikeout rate this season. Over their past six games, five of the six starters the Angels faced have had at least six strikeouts. Four of them punched out eight.
Skubal is certainly capable of climbing the ladder against the Angels. Going back to 2021, he had seven strikeouts in 6 and 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Angels. He has punched out nine in two of his last three starts. You can take Skubal for eight strikeouts at +250, nine at +500, and 10 at +900 on FanDuel. Skubal may give us some value tonight if he cashes his alternate lines, but I am confident that he gets six if he goes five innings or more.
Pick: Tarik Skubal Ocver 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
