We're back with more MLB player prop picks for today's slate.
Over the last two weeks, the Yankees have taken five of six meetings with the Tigers. Tonight, they will go for the sweep in the Bronx. However, they may have to work around the erratic pitching of Carlos Rodón.
The Cardinals have taken the first two games of the series from the Braves in Atlanta. However, don't blame the Braves' offense. With Adam Wainwright getting the start for the Cardinals, the Braves may take out some frustrations tonight.
After handling the Rockies yesterday, the Diamondbacks are in Chicago to begin an important four-game series against the Cubs in the NL Wild Card picture. Ryne Nelson will get the start for the Diamondbacks and he will have his hands full with the Cubs.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, September 7
Carlos Rodón's tenure with the Yankees has gotten off to a rocky start from the jump. Forearm and back injuries delayed his Yankees debut until July. Then, a hamstring injury sent him to the IL again. Rodón has thrown just 42 2/3 innings and his numbers have not been pretty. He has an elevated 5.70 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Rodón has pushed his WHIP up by walking 21 batters and he has walked two in seven of his nine starts. He will face a Tigers team that is 23rd in MLB in walk rate. However, they forced the opposing starting pitcher to issue two walks in four of their last six games, including twice against the Yankees.
Rodón is averaging fewer than five innings per start. However, considering he is averaging 4.43 BB/9, that might not be an issue. He ranks in the 13th percentile with an 11.4% walk rate. If Rodón struggles with his command early on, we may cash this line in the first couple of innings.
Pick: Carlos Rodon Over 1.5 Walks (-140 at DraftKings)
Adam Wainwright last started on August 28th against the San Diego Padres and he gave up just one earned run in six innings. However, that start has been the exception and not the rule for him this season. Wainwright has an 8.10 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP, averaging nearly two baserunners per inning.
Additionally, in that start against the Padres, Wainwright allowed eight hits and three walks, but the Padres could not capitalize on their chances.
Tonight, Wainwright faces the best offense in the league in the Atlanta Braves, who are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season. In their last 12 games, the Braves have scored four runs 10 times and six runs in eight of those games.
In six of those games, they got four earned runs off the opponent's starting pitcher, in addition to another game where the Giants used an opener.
Wainwright has allowed four earned runs in 10 of his 18 starts this season. We last faded him on the Fourth of July against the Marlins when he allowed three of his seven runs (four earned) in the first inning.
Considering that the Braves have the best first inning offense as well, I would not be surprised if this cashed in the first or second inning.
Pick: Adam Wainwright Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135 at DraftKings)
Ryne Nelson has given up six earned runs in each of his last two starts — at Minnesota and at home against the Padres. That brings his ERA to 5.47 for the season.
DraftKings has his earned runs line at 2.5 at +105 odds. While I lean towards the over, I suspect that it is plus money because his ERA is 3.30 on the road compared to 8.59 at home.
Before his start at Minnesota, Nelson held the Giants (twice), Braves, Blue Jays and Angels under three runs in five consecutive road starts.
I expect the Cubs get to Nelson tonight, but I am pivoting to his hits allowed line instead. Nelson has allowed five hits or more in six of his last eight starts. Even when Nelson has pitched well, he has still had a lot of traffic on the basepaths and he has a 1.47 WHIP this season.
For example, in his start against the Blue Jays, he gave up nine hits but survived relatively unscathed, giving up just two runs and one earned run.
The Cubs are averaging 9.85 hits per game over their seven and in four of those games, the opposing starter allowed five hits or more. That includes one where the Giants used an opener.
Nelson has a .295 opposing batting average this season and that has skyrocketed to .484 over his last his last two starts. Given that rate, we will need Nelson to face about 17 batters to give up five hits, which should take five innings.
A hit per inning is a reasonable expectation, particularly if the Cubs string together a big inning.
Pick: Ryne Nelson Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-155 at DraftKings)
