We have another glorious slate of action on the diamond this Saturday. With every team playing today, that means we have a boatload of profitable angles to sift through.
However, I've found three starters to target, as they each are primed for varied amounts of success.
So, let's find out who they are and how we're betting them in today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, May 6
Austin Gomber Under 3.5 Strikeouts +100
| Rockies vs. Mets | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber has had a rough start to the 2023 season as he enters his seventh outing with a 7.57 ERA.
While Gomber has never been profiled as a strikeout pitcher, he's missing bats at a significantly lower rate than in years past, and hitters are doing damage off him.
His strikeout rate is down three percent from last year and eight percent from the year before. His strikeout and whiff rates rank in the bottom 20% of all qualified starters.
This afternoon, he faces a New York Mets team that boasts the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
However, not only is he struggling to get strikeouts and has a tough matchup, but the numbers suggest that this line should be priced much higher.
Yes, Gomber has gone over this total in three of his six starts this season, but if we look at the bigger picture, the value jumps out. Over his 78 career starts, Gomber has gone under this total in 64.1% of them.
That gives us implied odds of -178 that he'll go under again.
Those odds are significant line value that we can't pass up, especially considering his trends and the matchup.
Pick: Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts -145
| White Sox vs. Reds | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
We go from one lefty that has been struggling to another that has been lethal against opposing batters this season.
The Reds' Nick Lodolo has been piling up strikeouts in the early going and isn't getting enough respect heading into his start today.
Lodolo has been wiping hitters out with his three-pitch mix, as his strikeout and whiff rates each rank inside the top 20% of the league.
Tonight, he'll be up against a White Sox lineup that's been easy to set down on strikes in years past. But this year, they're in the middle of the pack and slightly above league average in strikeout rate.
I mentioned that Lodolo is not getting enough respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.
That's because the numbers show this total is far too low for him.
The Reds lefty has gone over this total in five of his six starts this season and 18 of his 25 career starts. Hit rates like that make the juice worth the squeeze, as his implied odds are a whopping -257.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Reid Detmers Under 17.5 Outs Recorded -105
| Rangers vs. Angels | |
| First Pitch | 9:07 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
By now, we all know that Reid Detmers' enhanced arsenal has given him tremendous upside, as he has the ability to miss bats with the best of them.
However, he has yet to prove that he can consistently command his arsenal of pitches, which has limited his effectiveness.
Detmers has made it through the sixth inning in just one of his five starts this season and has walked multiple batters in three of his outings.
Based on his matchup, those trends are in line to continue tonight.
Detmers will be up against a Rangers lineup that is 16th in strikeout rate but also holds the ninth-best walk rate. They're a team that will make him work hard, which should lead to another early exit.
While Detmers' command issues have forced him out of games early this season, a deeper look shows this has been a trend throughout his career. Over his last 30 starts, he's gone under this total in 21 of them.
That 70% under rate gives us implied odds of -233.
Given the price we're getting, it's a good bet to make Detmers prove he can work deep into this game.
