While many will be focused on the College Football action Saturday, we can take advantage of the value that lies in the MLB player prop market today on Saturday, September 9, as we break down the MLB player props today and odds and picks for Aaron Nola, Griffin Canning and Davis Schneider.
I've found three big edges that should help boost our bankrolls. So, let's break down each of my top plays of the day.
MLB Player Props Today For Saturday, September 2nd
Griffin Canning has been serviceable at the backend of the Angels rotation this season, and while he has a great matchup on paper this afternoon, his expectations might be a little too high.
A big part of Canning's success this season has been his ability to rack up strikeouts. His strikeout rate sits in the 72nd percentile, and he'll face an Oakland A's lineup that comes in with the fifth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
However, the probability is heavily in our favor, as Canning's strikeout total is far too high, even in a great matchup. Canning has gone under this total in 84.1 percent of his last 44 appearances, most of which are starts.
That hit rate gives us staggering implied odds of -528 that he will go under again today. Our Action Labs projection has this as one of the best plays on the slate, with Canning projected for just 6.6 strikeouts.
Pick: under 7.5 strikeouts -140
Last night, I targeted Zack Wheeler's strikeout total against the Milwaukee Brewers, which was at the same number Nola's is tonight, and he sailed over it in six strong innings. Wheeler's outing is an example of how vulnerable this Brewers lineup is, and we should fully expect Nola to rack up more strikeouts tonight.
Overall, Nola has regained his form from a slow start to the season, and the strikeouts have been piling up. He has surpassed this total in 66.7 percent of his starts this season.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -200 that he will go over this total tonight, but that is before you factor in the matchup. The Brewers have a ton of swing and miss in their lineup, as they hold the 12th-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
Just like the prop above, our Action Labs projections love the over here. They have Nola projected for 6.6 strikeouts, which also gives value to this total at 6.5 plus money odds.
Pick: over 5.5 strikeouts (Play to 6.5 at plus money)
Backing this Toronto lineup in Coors Field is an expensive task, as many of the bats near the top of the order have highly juiced prices. However, we can target Davis Schneider, who may not have the best spot in the order but has a similar upside to pick up some extra bases tonight.
The New Jersey native has made a loud first impression north of the border as he shows that he can put the barrel to the ball at a high rate. Schneider has also demonstrated an early tendency to punish lefties, and he will get an opportunity to face a subpar one in Ty Blach.
Schneider has a staggering 1.083 slugging percent against lefties through just 24 at-bats, and while he is due for regression, Coors Field will help him stay hot. If he can connect off Blach, he may pick up four total bases with one swing.
Pick: over 1.5 total bases -125
