There's tons of value in the player prop market this Saturday. While there are many plays I like today, below are three plays that I love. So, let's dive in and break down our top three MLB player props for today's slate.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, August 26th
Eury Perez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Nationals vs. Marlins | 4:10 p.m. ET
The 20-year-old sensational has been, well, sensational through his first 14 big league starts. Eury Perez has made it known that he belongs with the big boys, as he holds a 2.91 ERA and 1.07 WHIP entering this outing.
The kid's stuff is electric, and he has overpowered big-league hitters, as his strikeout rate is 30.2 %. That rate ranks in the top ten percent of all qualified pitchers, but he may be getting too much love in a tough matchup.
This afternoon, Perez will face the Washington Nationals. While the Nats are a green lineup that is not exactly formidable, they do a tremendous job putting the ball in play.
The Nats come in tied for the lowest team strikeout rate in the majors. That rate factors in significantly to Perez's projection, which is just 4.7 according to Action Labs.
That projection, the matchup, and the fact Perez has gone under this total in eight of his 14 starts gives us a tremendous edge to capitalize on.
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Astros vs. Tigers | 6:10 p.m. ET
We go from a starter that is overinflated in a tough matchup to one that is being undervalued in a tough matchup. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for the Detroit Tigers as he looks to build on an excellent season.
E-Rod comes into his 20th start of the season with a 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, what's most notable about his stats is his strikeout rate. Rodriguez has set down 25.3 % of the batters he's faced on strikes this season, which is over one percent higher than his career average.
Now, the veteran lefty has a difficult assignment ahead of him today as he'll be lined up against the Houston Astros. The Astros are not only a dangerous lineup, but they put the ball in play a ton as they hold the fourth-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors.
However, this tough matchup has brought Rodriguez's strikeout total far too low. E-Rod has exceeded this total in 69.4 % of his last 36 starts. That gives implied odds of -227 that he will go over this afternoon.
Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Cardinals vs. Phillies | 7:15 p.m. ET
We'll round out the slate in Philly, as Phillies' ace Zack Wheeler is set to toe the slab. Wheeler has had yet another dominant season and is actually due for some positive regression in the ERA department.
However, in the strikeout department, he has dropped off over his last five starts, and that trend is in line to continue tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals are still a potent lineup and have done a great job putting the ball in play this season. The Cardinals come in boasting the tenth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
You take this tough matchup and add in the fact that Wheeler has gone under this total in 70.2 % of his last 57 starts, and you have yourself a sizable edge.
Those implied odds, and an Action Labs projection of 6.6 strikeouts are more than enough to fire on the under tonight.
