The Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog bet on the slate, and they've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
Blake Snell vs. Ryne Nelson
Anthony Dabbundo: Somehow, Blake Snell is still in the Cy Young conversation. Look, we all had fun having that conversation. I think we all kind of predicted the Blake Snell roller coaster.
If you followed along all season long, early in the year there were a lot of conversations about whether or not Snell was cooked. His Strikeout Rate was down, and everything was wrong. I thought, "we've all seen this from Snell before. He's gonna be fine."
Then, he was Sandy Koufax for about three months, nobody could touch him, and he was striking out 12 dudes a game. Everybody was like, "yeah, he's the Cy Young." I recalled, "we've seen this from Snell before too. This is the Blake Snell experience." Now, we're coming down the mountain on Snell quite a bit.
If you look at his rolling charts, his Strikeout Minus Walk Rate has really taken a tumble in the last month, and that concerns me. He's maintained his elite ERA numbers, but the Strikeout Minus Walk Rates, which were as high as 30+% — which is Spencer Strider level stuff — are now close to 10%, which is replacement-level starter stuff.
Tonight, he faces an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup which is pretty disciplined. They don't chase outside the zone a ton. Ryne Nelson continues to be a pitcher whom I lose money on repeatedly, and I'll be doing that once again. I'm taking the Diamondbacks +140 at home on the moneyline against Snell.
Look, anybody can look at the Padres' Run Differential and acknowledge that, yes, they have been unlucky. However, their approach with runners in scoring position is terrible. I'm not a big chemistry guy, but things are off in San Diego.
It goes beyond looking at their Pythag and saying that they've been unlucky. They get steamed every single day in the market, and the results continue to speak for themselves. I'm sure they'll have a winning run at some point because they are a good team, but the way the market prices them is crazy. They are -170 on the road in Arizona.
I know the Diamondbacks have been playing poorly; they've lost eight in a row. However, Snell has now become overrated. He was underrated, and now he's overrated, all in the same season. The market has gotten a little drunk on Blake, and I'm going to bet against him.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
Javier Assad vs. José Berríos
B.J. Cunningham: I like the Cubs, and the best price you can find out there is +136.
José Berríos is always a good fade candidate. He's drastically over performed this season. His ERA is 3.38, and his xERA is 4.59. As an example, in his two starts before his last start against Boston, he had a 5.20 xFIP against the Angels, a 7.70 xFIP against the Dodgers and only allowed a combined three runs.
His main pitch is a slurve, which has been over-performing compared to his actual Weighted On-Base Average Allowed versus his Expected Weighted On-Base Average Allowed.
This a good spot because the Cubs are the hottest team by batting average in baseball. In the past 30 days, they've obviously gone on this insane run, and their Run Value has been the best in baseball against breaking pitches.
Obviously, Berríos' slurve is a unique pitch; it's a combination between a curveball and a slider. He's one of the only guys who throws that kind of pitch, so we don't have a lot of data on teams against a slurve. However, the Cubs have been excellent over the last 30 days against breaking pitches.
The Cubs are going with a bullpen game; Javier Assad will be on the mound. He'll probably only see the order one time through before the Cubs go to the bullpen. He's been an average pitcher by all of his metrics. The Cubs' bullpen has also been pretty average, but, hopefully, they can give them a bunch of different looks from a bunch of different arms. They need to avoid throwing the Blue Jays straight fastballs, which they absolutely mash.
I only have the Blue Jays projected at -113, so I think this price is a little too high for José Berríos, especially considering how hot the Cubs have been. I like the Cubs at +136.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Friday, August 11
- Diamondbacks ML +140
- Cubs ML +136
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +443 at the time of this writing.
