Today's MLB weather forecast is probably the windiest I've ever seen for a baseball slate in my 10-plus years of forecasting for sporting events.
There are two spots (Detroit and Cleveland) where winds gusts could reach 40-50 mph — but there's also no guarantee those games will actually play due to cold, wind, and rain, so I'm focusing on a game that has some healthy winds without the added rain drama.
Here's my best bet for Friday based on today's MLB weather forecast, plus quick thoughts on the weather for every outdoor game on today's slate.
Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox: Over 9 Runs Scored
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -108o / -112u | -108 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -108o / -112u | -112 |
The winds in this game are going to be absolutely booking it — sustained winds near 20 mph with wind gusts over 30 mph. Those winds also just so happen to be blowing out to the shortest part of the park, the Green Monster in left field. If players can put some air under the ball, a typical double off the wall or even deep flyout could suddenly become a home run.
In 11 similar weather games in Boston, we've seen home runs increase by 62% and runs scored increase by 46%. While that is a small sample size (because we don't often see winds this strong), those are massive increases, and I expect those increases will carry us to an Over bet here.
As always you can follow along with the forecast on our MLB weather page on RotoGrinders or on Twitter/X, @KevinRothWx.
MLB Weather Forecast for Friday, April 12
Weather forecasts for MLB and PGA available every day at Rotogrinders.com. Forecasts only available for outdoor games. Forecasts below coded by color (green/yellow/orange/red) denoting likelihood of game being played.
ORANGE/YELLOW: It will rain all day in Detroit until roughly first pitch, then it's clear for the rest of the night. So we need to make sure the field is OK, but if it is, then our game time hours are dry for baseball. It's also cold (40s) and very windy, with 25 mph sustained and gusts to 40 mph blowing out to left. So there's also some "it's dry, but this isn't baseball weather" concern.
YELLOW: A few scattered showers, but nothing that stands out as a major problem. I'll put it at "a chance of a delay." and if the radar looks decent pregame, we likely avoid even that. Winds out to right at 15 mph.
YELLOW: A good amount of lighter showers in the area, but I still think it's playable. Late start or delay possible. Winds out to right at 20 mph.
ORANGE/RED: Similar to Detroit, except the rain lingers longer here. It will rain all day, and we still could see drizzle at first pitch. They would likely need a late start here, and even then they are playing baseball with a temperature in the 40s, winds sustained at 30 mph, and gusts to 50 mph. I just don't think that's baseball weather, and they probably hit us with an early PPD.
GREEN: Winds out to left at 20 mph.
GREEN: A couple raindrops possible, but nothing that will stop play. Winds out to left-center at 15 mph.
GREEN: Winds out to dead center at 15-20 mph.
GREEN: Winds out to left at 10 mph.
