Nationals vs. Braves Predictions
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+165 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -125 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +105 |
The Washington Nationals will play the Atlanta Braves in the finale of a four-game NL East set.
The Nationals have taken two of three, while the Braves will look to even it up at two apiece.
Atlanta (31-22) is second in the NL East and six games back of the Phillies for the division lead, holding a wildcard spot at the moment. The Nationals (25-29) sit 12.5 games out but are just 2.5 games back in the wildcard race, trying to stay in the hunt
Nationals vs Braves odds have Atlanta listed as a -198 favorite with an over/under of 9 runs (+100/-120)
Find my Nationals vs Braves prediction for Thursday, May 30 below.
Washington Nationals
Trevor Williams will get the start for the Nationals tonight.
Now in his ninth season in the Majors, the 32-year-old is having a career year. Williams has a 2.29 ERA, 3.19 expected ERA, and 2.78 FIP.
Williams’ Stuff+ numbers haven’t been anything special, ranking 95th out of 102 pitchers in this metric among those with 50-plus innings this season. But his Location+ numbers have been strong, as his 104 Location+ ranks 25th among the same group.
Despite his second-percentile fastball velocity, Williams effectively utilizes a five-pitch arsenal to keep batters off balance. He ranks in the 64th percentile among qualified pitchers in ground ball rate and 76th percentile in barrel rate allowed, albeit in just the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
It’s hard to determine whether Williams will continue this success, as he doesn’t miss many bats and the ones he doesn’t miss result in relatively average contact metrics. Williams has been excellent to this point, but I expect a regression eventually, even if he remains a reliable starter and finishes the year with career-best metrics.
After a surprising start to the year, the Nationals’ offense has taken a step back recently. They now sit 24th in wOBA and 25th in wRC+ among MLB lineups this year. The Statcast numbers back up this performance, where they rank 24th in hard-hit rate, 25th in exit velocity, and last in barrel rate.
Atlanta Braves
Speaking of starters having the best seasons of their careers, 30-year-old Reynaldo Lopez is having one of his own.
Tied for the NL lead in ERA among pitchers with 50-plus innings, Lopez sports a 1.75 ERA through nine starts.
However, Lopez’s success may not be sustainable as he has a 3.92 expected ERA and 3.99 SIERA. He has stranded 82.7% of his runners this year and has the fifth-best HR/FB ratio, two metrics that should regress.
Like Williams, Lopez’s contact metrics aren’t anything special despite the good results. He ranks in the 38th percentile among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed, 41st percentile average exit velocity allowed, and 64th percentile barrel rate allowed. He ranks in the 56th percentile in strikeout rate and 40th percentile in walk rate. He hasn’t even been inducing grounders, ranking in the 34th percentile in ground-ball rate.
Lopez is getting good results this season, but based on the underlying metrics, I don't expect those results to hold. He is a decent starter but likely not a Cy Young candidate.
The Braves currently have a top-ten offense in the league, but it hasn’t quite been what they were hoping for. Ronald Acuña Jr. struggled for much of the year before sustaining a season-ending injury while Austin Riley is just now making his way back after an absence and has had struggles of his own.
Still, the Braves rank eighth among MLB lineups in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA this year, including the fourth-highest BABIP and seventh-highest OPS.
Atlanta has been crushing the ball. They lead MLB in exit velocity and hard-hit rate while ranking fifth in barrel rate. Part of its problem could potentially be launch angles, as the Braves boast the 12th-lowest launch angle and have produced the 10th-highest ground ball rate.
Based on these batted ball metrics, the Braves should be performing just a bit better than they have to this point. They rank second in expected wOBACON, sixth in expected wOBA, and fifth in expected SLG. Even without Acuna, this should be a top-five offense going forward.
Nationals vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these pitchers have been outperforming their underlying metrics to this point in the season and are likely getting more credit in the market than they deserve.
I think that Williams projects best going forward, but the Braves boast a much better lineup.
Washington’s offense has struggled much of the year, but I don’t think that means Lopez will be guaranteed to put up a good start.
Both of these offenses have the potential to get to the opposing starting pitcher, and while it’s more likely for the Braves due to their explosive offense, I think it’s wise to leave both sides of this equation open.
I think we could be in for a high-scoring first half of this game from at least one — if not both — sides.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-130) | Play to Over 4.5 (-135)
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