Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick & Thursday Odds (8/29)

The New York Mets (69-64) and Arizona Diamondbacks (76-57) conclude their entertaining series on Thursday afternoon at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks won 8-5 on Wednesday after the Mets put up 8 runs of their own in an 8-3 victory Tuesday, setting up the Thursday rubber match between playoff hopefuls.

David Peterson will take the hill for New York, while the surging Ryne Nelson takes the ball for Arizona. My Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick for today are below.

• Mets vs Diamondbacks pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-115)
  • Click here to bet the Diamondbacks to win instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip — the bet is automatically added to your bet slip!

My Mets-Diamondbacks best bet is on Diamondbacks moneyline, where I see value at a -115 price, played up to -140. The best line is available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Thursday, Aug 29

3:40 p.m. ET

ARID

Mets Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -195	8 -120o / +100u	+105

Diamondbacks Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 +162	8 -120o / +100u	-125

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Mets vs Diamondbacks run line: Mets +1.5 (-195) | Dbacks -1.5 (+162)
• Mets vs Diamondbacks total: Over/under 8 (-120o / +100u)
• Mets vs Diamondbacks moneylines: Mets +105 | Dbacks -125

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks Preview, Predictions

Mets Betting Preview: Lindor, Alonso Mashing

The New York Mets will send Peterson to the mound. He's been a revelation this year, posting a 2.85 ERA with a 5.28 xERA and 4.20 FIP. Peterson's deeper numbers have suggested regression for months, but it has yet to happen.

Peterson has gone deep into games. That's a huge key in his development since the Mets typically flip-flopped him between the 'pen and rotation between occasional minor-league stints. Now with some consistency, Peterson has found his home in the Mets' rotation. He's gone six-or-more innings in four of his past five outings, including seven-or-more innings in his past two outings. It won't be an easy outing against Arizona's offense, but Peterson has put together an outstanding season.

The biggest difference in Peterson's game is his strand rate. He's stranded a career-best 81% of base runners. However, he likely can't sustain such a strong rate given how many runners reach against him. He walks over three batters per nine innings.

The Mets' offensive production has tapered down since its scorching June and July, but I think the fans will be happy with a 108 wRC+. That's good for the 13th best in MLB in August. However, the Mets have struggled with the swing-and-miss and are punching out over 25% of the time.

When the Mets are good, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are hitting. And they're both hitting. Lindor is firmly in the NL MVP discussion and has a terrific 168 wRC+ this month. Alonso trails with a 145 wRC+ and six homers, but his strikeout rate has ballooned to 35.3%.

Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Nelson, Suarez Surging

It's time to give Nelson some well-earned love. It doesn't seem like he gets the attention, but he's been highly profitable.

Nelson has been more than just the Diamondbacks' best pitcher over the past month. He's been one of the best starters in baseball, posting a 2.91 ERA in his past seven outings with 49 strikeouts over 43 1/3 innings.

Even with the hot streak, Nelson's ERA still sits at 4.29 with a 4.03 xERA and a 3.62 FIP. That means Nelson's positive regression could lead to even better numbers.

The Diamondbacks' offense is less lethal against southpaws, even with Christian Walker and Ketel Marte on the Injured List.

Though their current roster is better against righties, Arizona ranks fifth in MLB with a 113 wRC+ against lefties with a strong 20.6% strikeout rate, compared to a poor 7.5 walk rate. It'll need to discover some patience against Peterson, who can struggle with control.

It's been nearly an entire month of the Diamondbacks performing as the best offenses in baseball. Since August 1st, Arizona ranks first with a 133 wRC+, eight points ahead of the second-place Yankees. Arizona's offense has enjoyed the warm summer weather, hitting 41 homers in August, one less than the Yankees. The Diamondbacks also boast an improved 10.5% walk rate while maintaining a minuscule 19.9% K rate.

One of the primary reasons for Arizona's offensive success, despite its injuries, is Eugenio Suarez. The veteran looked like a possible DFA candidate through June, but is batting over .300 with eight homers and has an OPS north of .900 in his past 30 games. He could play a factor if the Diamondbacks take this game since he's a righty bat against the lefty pitcher.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Moneyline Analysis

Nelson has a much greater chance of sustaining his success than Peterson, who's time being a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher shouldn't last much longer. One aspect of Nelson's game where he can really exploit the Mets is his newfound ability to rack up strikeouts. Nelson has struck out six or more batters in six of his past seven starts and has sprinkled in a trio of nine-strikeout performances. If he's able to keep the Mets off balance, he should have a good outing. For the D'backs offense to succeed, staying patient against Peterson is key. He'll spray the ball around if they let him.

Mets vs Diamondbacks pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-120)

Moneyline

I'm backing the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

Run Line (Spread)

I don't have a strong lean in either direction. The Mets blew the Diamondbacks out of the water in game one, but game two looked a lot more evenly matched. With weather favoring runs and two strong offensive teams, this could be a close game.

Over/Under

For the reasons stated above, I like the over. Chase Field favors hitters and the Diamondbacks have gone over the total in 39 of their 64 home games. I think we'll see that trend continue as two of the better offenses in baseball should cruise past the nine run total.

• 74% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.
• 93% of the bets and 94% of the money are on the over.
• 82% of the bets and 58% of the money are on the Diamondbacks to cover the run line.

METS:

• Mets are 2-3 in their past 5 games
• Mets are 4-1 in their past 5 games against the spread
• Mets are 33-31 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets past 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 33 of the Mets 64 road games

DBACKS:

• Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their past 10 games
• Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their past five games against the spread
• Diamondbacks are 30-34 in their home games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks' past 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Diamondbacks' 64 past games at home

Mets vs Diamondbacks starts at 3:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, live from Chase Field in Phoenix. The game can be streamed on MLB.TV and is also available on local television broadcasts.