The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on July 5, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Braves are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Braves Prediction
- Mets vs Braves Pick: Mets ML (+105 or Better)
My Mets vs Braves best bet is on New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
- Mets vs Braves moneyline: Mets +105, Braves -125
- Mets vs Braves over/under: 9.5 (-105 / -115)
- Mets vs Braves spread: Mets +1.5 (-205), Braves -1.5 (+170)
Mets vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Nolan McLean (RHP, NYM) | Stat | Martin Perez (LHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.78 / 3.44 | ERA / xERA | 3.27 / 4.37 |
| 3.58 / 3.39 | FIP / xFIP | 4.29 / 4.17 |
| 19.4 | K-BB% | 9.9 |
| 46.8 | GB% | 47.2 |
| .269 | BABIP | .237 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 96 | Location+ | 103 |
Mets vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets hand the ball to right-hander Nolan McLean, who is a strong candidate to back. Coming off a promising first taste of MLB action in 2025, McLean has picked up right where he left off.
He is a legitimate NL Rookie of the Year contender, and for good reason. Through 17 starts, McLean owns a 3.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even more impressive, as the right-hander owns a 3.45 xERA and a .214 xBA. McLean also ranks in the top third of the league in average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against the Braves, a team he has pitched well against. In two meetings, McLean is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
New York won both of those games.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
On the other side, the current Braves roster owns a .167 batting average, .167 slugging percentage and a .227 wOBA across 28 combined plate appearances against McLean. Of course, Atlanta has had tremendous success at the plate this season.
However, this is a difficult matchup for the home favorites. The two primary contributors to the Braves’ offense have been Matt Olson and Michael Harris II.
Against McLean, Olson is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, while Harris II is 0-for-5 with three strikeouts.
If Atlanta’s offense is neutralized in this matchup, it could struggle, especially with left-hander Martín Pérez slated to take the mound.
Mets vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
Pérez has been hit hard in each of his past two outings. Over that stretch, he is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest these struggles are likely to continue. Entering this matchup, the southpaw ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Furthermore, the current Mets roster has had success against Pérez. In 77 combined plate appearances, they own a .328 batting average, a .422 slugging percentage and a .386 wOBA.
Pick: Mets ML (+105 or Better)
