The New York Mets visit the Windy City to take on the Chicago Cubs on September 25, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT.
Find my MLB pick and Mets vs Cubs prediction below, as well as odds, probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Mets vs Cubs Prediction
- Mets vs Cubs pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
My Mets vs Cubs prediction is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Cubs Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Mets vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) | Stat | LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 9-7 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 1.27 / 3.32 | ERA / xERA | 3.37 / 4.07 |
| 2.41 / 2.94 | FIP / xFIP | 4.77 / 4.47 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 19.4 | K-BB% | 16.5 |
| 64.1 | GB% | 28.8 |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 94 | Location+ | 108 |
Mets vs Cubs Preview
Mets rookie Nolan McLean has not allowed more than two runs in any of his seven starts this season, with a 1.27 ERA and 46 strikeouts through 42 and 2/3 innings so far.
McLean has given up a total of just two earned runs in his past three outings combined and will look to shut down a Cubs offense that has produced 17 runs in the first two games of this series.
Shota Imanaga will oppose him for Chicago. The lefty has a 3.29 ERA at home this season, and will face a Mets lineup that performs significantly worse against southpaws, going from 4th overall in wRC+ (113) to 15th versus LHP (97).
The Mets have also struggled a bit lately, ranking 10th in the majors in wRC+ in the past two weeks.
Our Bet Labs system recommends going against the trend and backing the under tonight.
This system targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115, bet365)
Mets vs Cubs Betting Trends
For the latest on MLB injuries, be sure to check out our MLB Injury Report page.
