The Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Yankees on Friday, May 8. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES and MLB.TV.
The Yankees are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Picks
- Yankees vs Brewers Pick: Brewers ML (+112)
My Yankees vs Brewers best bet is on Milwaukee to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Brewers Odds, Betting Line, Over/Under
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -125 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +105 |
- Yankees vs Brewers Moneyline: Yankees ML -125, Brewers ML +105
- Yankees vs Brewers Over/Under: 7.5
- Yankees vs Brewers Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+140), Brewers +1.5 (-170)
Yankees vs Brewers Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 2.39 / 2.32 | ERA / xERA | 2.84 / 2.90 |
| 2.72 / 3.91 | FIP / xFIP | 2.98 / 2.62 |
| 13.9 | K-BB% | 28.4 |
| 46.0 | GB% | 40.8 |
| .221 | BABIP | .264 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 122 |
| 103 | Location+ | 94 |
Yankees vs Brewers Preview
Editor's Note: This written article is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
I think this is a wrong team favorite game. I make the Brewers -106 favorites on the moneyline instead of the Yankees.
They're at home, and New York also had to travel yesterday. You can dock the Yankees about another percentage point for that. I didn't, but that is something you can factor into a projection.
However, I just think Jacob Misiorowski has been absolutely stupidly elite this season with 2.75 xERA and a 2.6 SIERA. You have to knock his projected rest of season ERA much closer to 3.00 than the projections would indicate, which is closer to 3.50 or 4.00.
The Brewers SP also has a 28.5% strikeout minus walk rate. Just absolutely elite filthy stuff for Misiorowski.
Action PRO projects him for 9.8 strikeouts tonight.
The Yankees' Max Fried has been great too, but his expected indicators are closer to 4.00. That's where he usually is. His ground ball rate is deceptive, which tends to hide a little bit more than that, because it's also factoring in a league-average home run rate that it's regressing him to.
He's not going to allow homers. You do need to chip away at Fried, but that's exactly what the Brewers do: bunts, slap singles, moving runners along, etc.
So it's the type of pitcher that a small-ball lineup should be able to manufacture some sort of offense against.
Yankees vs Brewers Pick, MLB Best Bet
I make the total for this game about seven runs, so I'm in line with the market.
I would have loved to have bet Under 7.5, but I do make the Brewers -106 on the moneyline, and that is my pick.
I would bet them down to about +105.
Pick: Brewers ML (+112)
