After taking the Seattle Mariners to town on Tuesday night, the New York Yankees will look for another crucial win as they try to fend off the Baltimore Orioles for the American League East crown. First pitch for Yankees-Mariners on Wednesday night at T-Mobile Park is set for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video and ROOT sports. Let's get into my Yankees vs Mariners prediction.
Yankees at Mariners Predictions
- Yankees-Mariners pick: Yankees Moneyline (-120 | Play to -135)
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet for Wednesday is on the Yankees Moneyline, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 -111/-109 | -1.5 +142 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+101 | 7.5 -111/-109 | +1.5 -171 |
Yankees vs Mariners Probable Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nestor Cortes (NYY) | Stat | RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-10 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.90 / 3.69 | ERA /xERA | 3.12 / 3.79 |
| 3.88 / 4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 3.85 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 17.5% | K-BB% | 18.1% |
| 31.2% | GB% | 38.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Kenny Ducey’s Yankees vs Mariners Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Nestor Cortes in Form
Cortes' move to the bullpen was over just as quickly as it began, as the left-hander returned to start last week against the Red Sox and spun five innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts. It came off the back of a scoreless appearance of 4 1/3 innings in relief five days prior, and while the Cubs and Red Sox aren't exactly lefty-mashers, neither are the Mariners.
The southpaw is one of the happiest fly-ball pitchers in baseball with 32.4% of the contact against him coming back in the air, so like Luis Gil on Tuesday, he should enjoy this one. Seattle may be leading baseball in wRC+ over the last week, but a deadly combination of strikeouts and fly balls did them in to open this series, and New York's starter in Game 2 is just as capable in those areas.
Cortes and the rest of his rotation-mates have been in an odd spot lately — they fumbled away two incredible months of offense only to see the bats hit .219 over the last two weeks as they've reigned things in considerably.
New York's 89 wRC+ over this span ranks 19th in the league, and while it's continued to walk at a torrid clip and limit the strikeouts, the most glaring issue has been a .117 Isolated Power (ISO) — a number that's rarely, if ever, been that low over a two-week stretch this year.
It's hard to say this hasn't been coming for a while, however, considering the Yankees cooled off a bit to start the month of September — but it had seemed a string of left-handers had been a justifiable excuse for the dip. Now, it's harder to find the answers, and while Aaron Judge remains white hot, there's been little else to celebrate.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Regression Coming for Miller
As we alluded to above, it's been an excellent two-week stretch for the Mariners as they sit atop baseball by a wide margin with a 148 wRC+ and .289 average. Strikeouts are still a slight concern at 22%, though it's nothing compared to their league-leading average for the season, and it should also be said that this team had the benefit of facing some slumping bullpens.
Seattle's also come in well above its .261 Expected Batting Average (xBA) during this time, which isn't to say it hasn't hit well — ranking sixth in this category in the last 14 days, but there's certainly some room for regression.
On the hill, Miller has remained an effective pitcher in the back end of arguably the best rotation in the American League, carrying a 3.79 Expected ERA (xERA) into this one. It's been weighed a bit by a splendid 5.9% walk rate, however, and his .422 Expected Slugging (xSLG) is considerably worse than the league average next to an unassuming .235 xBA.
Miller's begun to waffle a bit this month, however, issuing six free passes in 16 2/3 innings across three outings, and the 15 punchouts he's recorded pale in comparison to the 34 in 28 1/3 frames last month. He's also registered a .261 xBA and .400 xSLG this month, so there's certainly a bit of trouble beneath the surface as he continues to pitch to good results.
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
Like Gil on Tuesday, I love this spot for Cortes on Wednesday as one of the most extreme launch-angle pitchers in the game. He should manage to induce plenty of flyouts, and with a very palatable strikeout rate rising in recent games, the crafty southpaw should pose more problems for a Mariners team that looks ready to come back down to Earth.
On the flip side, Miller's been rather pedestrian on contact this season and has only gotten worse this month, leading me to believe that this one shouldn't be all roses for the young righty. The Yankees continue to walk at a very high clip, doing so over 12% of the time in the last two weeks, and with Miller's walks creeping up a bit lately the warning signs are certainly there.
I see a wealth of value in the Yankees at this price.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-120)
Moneyline
While big money is hitting the Yankees, we've tracked some sharp action on the Mariners. Still, the line has moved five cents in the visitors' favor from the opener.
Run Line (Spread)
After failing to do so in six straight games, the Yankees have now covered the run line in their last two. Seattle stands just 8-7 to the run line as home underdogs this season, the eighth-worst mark in baseball.
Over/Under
Tuesday marked the first time in seven games that the Yankees have played to the over, but it should come as no surprise considering they're a commanding 33-20-2 to the over as road favorites.
Yankees-Mariners Betting Trends
- 77% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Yankees on the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the over.
- 77% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 4-1 in their past 5 games.
- Yankees are 2-3 in their past 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 41-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Yankees' last 5 games
Mariners Betting Trends
- Mariners are 3-2 in their past 5 games.
- Mariners are 2-3 in their past 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Mariners' past 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Mariners' 76 last games at home
