If you like high-scoring games, then the Yankees and Blue Jays provided ideal viewing on Friday evening in the Bronx as the over hit in the third inning of an eventual 8-5 victory for Toronto.
The Yankees swept the Phillies earlier this week and now hope to take care of business against the Blue Jays, who sit in last place in the American League East. Jose Berrios will start for the Blue Jays and Carlos Rodon is slated to get the ball for the Yankees in the Saturday middle game at Yankee Stadium.
Here's my Saturday MLB betting preview of this AL East clash, which includes my Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds, Prediction
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-240 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 -120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+196 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 +100 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) | Stat | RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 9-8 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.34/4.29 | ERA /xERA | 3.93/5.25 |
| 4.62/4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 5.04/4.55 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 3.6 | K-BB% | 2.5 |
| 32.9 | GB% | 43.3 |
| 123 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul's Yankees vs Blue Jays Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Rodon Needs to Perform
The first two years of Rodon’s tenure in the Bronx has been tumultuous. His entire first season was a wash due to injury and poor performance, then he burst onto the scene with an outstanding first few months of the 2024 season. However, Rodon’s poor peripherals hinted at regression, which then became reality.
He allowed 21 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings against the Braves, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Teams were teeing off of Rodon’s fastball, but I came away encouraged from his past two starts.
First, Rodon twirled his best start in pinstripes, going seven innings and allowing just one run on 10 hits, while striking out 10. Then, in arguably the most important start of his Yankees' career, Rodon threw well against the Red Sox.
He generated 24 whiffs over 6 1/3 strong innings and the Yankees won.
So, what changed for the veteran southpaw?
Well, Rodon featured his changeup more against the Red Sox and I’m buying into the changes turning the tide on Rodon’s season.
The Yankees much-maligned lineup, which got little production except from Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, the likely AL MVP, during a brutal stretch in June and early July, received a nice shot in the arm last week. Jazz Chisholm Jr. already has four homers with the Yankees.
New York also owns the best wRC+ in MLB (119), the best walk rate in MLB (10.8%) and a terrific 20.8% strikeout rate.
My biggest concern is the bullpen. Closer Clay Holmes is better than fans think, but he’s been the benefactor of some dreadful BABIP luck. Beyond Holmes and Mark Leiter Jr., the bullpen is very shaky.
The Yankees desperately need a strong start from Rodon to avoid a potential meltdown from the bullpen.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Berrios Due for Regression?
Berrios’ peripherals have signaled regression, which has finally started to hit in the past seven starts. During that stretch, he's pitched to a 5.82 ERA over 38 2/3 innings.
The 30-year-old starter ranks in the eighth percentile in xBA, the 16th percentile in average exit velocity and the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate. Plus, Berrios has a career-worst 6.61 K/9 and ranks in the 17th percentile in strikeout percentage. I can’t draw many positives from Berrios’ 2024 campaign.
Toronto can blame its disastrous season on its porous offense. The poor play resulted in Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa being moved at the deadline, which puts more on the plates of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (200 wRC+ in July) and George Springer (139 wRC+ in July.) The only other Toronto hitter with a wRC+ above 100 in July was Ernie Clement at 102.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis: Back The Bronx Bombers
I'm backing the Bronx Bombers here. Call me a fool, but I went back and watched both of Rodon's past two starts, and he truly looked like the Rodon of old. I'm willing to take a shot on the Yankees run line — both as a fade of Berrios and while hoping to strike on Rodon before people fully buy in again.
Pick: Yankees (-1.5) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
Considering I have the Yankees run line as my official pick, the only moneyline pick that makes sense is Yankees moneyline (-185.) However, I just don't want to lay -185.
Run Line (Spread)
My favorite play for the game is to bet the Yankees on the run line. The pitching advantage favors the Yankees and the Yankees' lineup is much better than Toronto's. Additionally, the Yankees have the second-highest slugging percentage in baseball versus relievers, while the Blue Jays' relief corps allows the worst slugging percentage among bullpens.
Over/Under
Over the past 10 games, the Yankees are 9-1 to the over and the Blue Jays are 8-2 to the over in their past 10 games. Both teams have played some high-scoring games lately and that should continue in the hitter-friendly Yankee stadium, even if Rodon has a solid start. I'll take over 8.5 at -125.
