Orioles vs Braves Odds | Thursday Moneyline Prediction
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-118 | 9 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -185 |
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-102 | 9 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +154 |
Cole Irvin, who an ERA much lower than his xERA, has been the beneficiary of some good fortune this year. However, he can limit walks and pitch deep into this game for the Baltimore Orioles if he doesn't give up too much hard contact.
His opponent on Thursday afternoon at Camden Yards will be Reynaldo López and the Atlanta Braves, who have lost five straight games and are looking to avoid getting swept. López also has an ERA that's much lower than his xERA. López will miss some more bats, but these two are pretty identical otherwise.
The major discrepancy in this game is how well the Orioles have hit against righties, compared to the Braves against lefties. Will that be enough to propel Baltimore to victory in this interleague series finale? Find out in MLB betting preview below, which features my Orioles vs Braves moneyline prediction.
Baltimore Orioles
Irvin is similar to López in that his 2.87 ERA may not be sustainable with a 4.55 xERA. His average Exit Velocity is over 90 mph and his ground-ball rate is just average. On the plus side, he rarely issues walks, which could extend his outing.
The major difference here is the Orioles have the sticks to put up runs early against López. The Orioles have eight active bats with an xwOBA above .330 and have a 127 wRC+ off of right-handers over the past month. Also, their strikeout rate is below 20%.
In relief, the Orioles are similar to the Braves. They have multiple options with an xFIP below 4.00 and have a bullpen xFIP of 4.31. Yes, that's worse than the Braves, and Baltimore's walk rate is above 10%, but a few arms should do the trick if Irvin can limit the hard-hit balls at home.
Atlanta Braves
López has a 1.85 ERA and a 3.86 xERA. His average Exit Velocity is a tick below 89 mph and his ground-ball rate is well below average, which could be a factor here because Baltimore loves hitting the ball in the air. López does hold above average strikeout and chase rates, but sometimes has issues with walks.
The Braves have suffered dramatically with injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider. Acuña being out puts a big damper on the lineup's power production. In the past month, the Braves have an 85 wRC+, a 5.4% walk rate and a 23.1% strikeout rate against lefties. The lineup is also top heavy, which could give a boost to Irvin.
Additionally, Atlanta’s bullpen has not been the sharpest in the past month. However, they have maintained a 4.00 xFIP with a 23.3% strikeout and a sub-8% walk rate. If regression comes for López, the Braves have some reliable options behind him.
Orioles vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
After the injury to Acuña, Baltimore's lineup boasts more depth than Atlanta's. Baltimore could get it going early and be the start of López’s regression. His transition back into a starting role has been impressive, but the current numbers aren't sustainable, especially when facing one of the best lineups in baseball. Bet the Orioles from -115 to -130.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles ML -115 | Play to -130
