Orioles vs. Diamondbacks Predictions
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+106 | 7.5 -105/-115 | +1.5 -190 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-124 | 7.5 -105/-115 | -1.5 +155 |
The D'backs and Orioles are set to have a rubber match in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. The O's began their Mother's Day celebrations early with a wild walk-off win on Saturday.
This should be a terrific pitching matchup as Zac Gallen gets the ball for the Snakes and Dean Kremer will get it for the O's. Kremer has an ERA under 2.00 in his past three starts and is trying to prove that last season was nothing short of a fluke.
Let's break down both teams and make an Orioles vs. Diamondbacks pick.
Baltimore Orioles
Kremer has been dominant on the bump in his past three starts, but there is some regression looming for the right-hander. Kremer has his season ERA below 3.70, but his xERA and xFIP suggest he is getting fortunate.
The D'backs are seventh in runs per game, and that's with Corbin Carroll hitting below .210. It is only a matter of time before this offense starts clicking, so you can only imagine how dangerous Arizona will be once that kicks into fruition.
Kremer possesses a 44 ground-ball rate, but an alarming 16.7% HR/FB rate. He also has a .192 BABIP, which is far too low of a number to have any real confidence in his ability to be consistent.
That's not to say he isn't a capable pitcher, but this is a bad matchup for him with looming regression. A lot of the O's success will need to come from their bats.
Gallen was roughed up last September against the Orioles, but they are 6-for-27 against him lifetime. I do not have a ton of confidence in their bats given the matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a player to watch Sunday. He has two career homers against Kremer and his bat stuck out right away when I started digging into the matchup.
The Snakes have decent numbers against Kremer in the past, although a 6-for-19 sample size is nothing to get too giddy about. After a tough loss Saturday, I expect a focused effort in the rubber match.
Gallen has been the ace of the staff for the past few seasons and is once again off to a good start. Gallen was roughed up in his last start against the Orioles (Sept. 2023), but look no further than his terrific outing against the Reds in his most recent outing.
We all know the Reds can be a strikeout-friendly bunch, but that lineup is still tough to escape. Gallen is more than capable of stifling Baltimore on Sunday afternoon.
Orioles vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
I like the Snakes to take care of business on Sunday and take the series in Baltimore. It doesn't seem like the market is giving them much respect, but I disagree with that.
Without overthinking it too much, I trust Gallen over Kremer any day of the week. Kremer is going to struggle against the top of the order, which is far too concerning given the looming regression.
Arizona is off to a slow start, but I doubt that lasts for long. We are getting a generous price with the better pitcher on the mound.
Pick: Arizona +120 (Play to EV)
