Orioles vs. Guardians Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9 -105o / -115u | -104 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 9 -105o / -115u | -112 |
Trevor Rogers was one of the main trades the Baltimore Orioles made last week. The veteran lefty has been good lately, but his peripherals are not encouraging. If anything, this adds sorely needed depth to the starting rotation for them.
He will face off against the Cleveland Guardians and Ben Lively. The Guardians haven't hit well in the last month, and although Lively has been solid, Rogers has at least had decent results and can take down the weaker portion of the Guardians’ lineup.
Cleveland has been a bit better in relief, but the Baltimore lineup should carry the O’s to victory.
Baltimore Orioles
Rogers has a 4.53 ERA and xERA of 4.85. His Average Exit Velocity is 90.5 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 14th percentile. The southpaw is also struggling with command, walking 9.7% of batters with an 18% strikeout rate. He took a step back from 2023 — where he had limited outings — so he could turn it around in Baltimore.
The Orioles are crushing the ball. Jordan Westburg may have landed on the Injured List, but Jackson Holliday burst back onto the scene, to even out the lineup. In July off of righties, the O’s had a 116 wRC+, 9.1% walk rate, and 21.6% strikeout rate.
They lost Austin Hays but added Cristian Pache in return. Overall, the O’s have six bats who were above a .350 xwOBA in July off of righties, so Lively will have to deal with a potent lineup.
The O’s bullpen had an upgrade in that Hays for Pache trade to the bullpen with Seranthony Domínguez being a nice addition. The Orioles held a 3.77 xFIP in relief in July with a 7.1% walk rate and strikeout rate over 25%. They have several options to throw behind Rogers, so if he has to exit early, they have middle relief depth.
Cleveland Guardians
Lively has been a more consistent option with better peripherals than Rogers. The righty has a 3.44 ERA on the year with a 3.63 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is also above 90 MPH with a subpar Hard-Hit Rate. He doesn't walk nearly as many hitters as Rogers does, but Lively doesn't keep the ball on the ground as well.
One area the Guardians have struggled is at the dish against lefties in July. They have a 92 wRC+ with a 7.6% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate. This says that Rogers may not walk as many as he's used to walking. The Guardians have only four starters above a .320 xwOBA, so the bottom of the lineup could be a cakewalk.
Cleveland has excelled in relief. The Guardians have a 3.64 xFIP in the last month with a 26% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Like the Orioles, the Guards have multiple options to go to once Lively has to exit the game. However, if Rogers walks more and thus, accrues more pitches, Lively could make it deeper into the game.
Orioles vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
That said, the Guardians haven't hit well lately. Although Rogers has struggled to find the strike zone, the Orioles bullpen and offense can pick him up. Look for the Orioles to continue their hot hitting and win this one on the road.
They'll miss Westburg, but getting the number-one overall prospect back in the lineup in Holliday is a nice consolation prize. Take the Orioles here to win this one from -110 to -130. Who knows? Rogers could end up continuing to get favorable results with this type of offense behind him.
Pick: Orioles ML -110 | Play to -130 |
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