Orioles vs Padres Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +145 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -175 |
Michael King has been fantastic in the San Diego Padres’ rotation. He has excelled in getting hitters to chase, notching strikeouts and limiting hard contact. He hasn't been the best in terms of walk rate or ground-ball rate, but he's done so well in the other areas, that those inefficiencies don't matter much.
He'll face the Baltimore Orioles, who are sending Dean Kremer to the mound on Saturday. Kremer has been awful this season and he, along with a series of pitching injuries, is a major reason why the Orioles could be looking for a starter at the trade deadline. With that being the case, my Orioles vs Padres pick and prediction will focus on King and the Padres.
San Diego Padres
King has a 3.28 ERA and a 3.52 xERA. His average exit velocity is an astoundingly low 85.6 mph. He also has an elite hard-hit rate. His ground-ball and walk rates are below average, but his 27.5% strikeout rate will play. Baltimore has been decent against righties, but King should fare much better than Kremer in this matchup.
The Padres hold a 101 wRC+ with a 4.7% walk rate and a 17.3% strikeout rate against righties over the past month. They have six batters with an xwOBA over .320 and a few others just below that mark, which should be enough against a subpar starter like Kremer.
In relief, San Diego has a 3.75 xFIP with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. The Padres have five relievers with an xFIP below 4.00, so they have options when King exits. However, he has displayed an ability to pitch deep into games.
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Baltimore Orioles
Kremer has a 4.43 ERA against a 5.47 xERA. He will get worse, it's just a matter of time. His barrel rate ranks in the third percentile, but he is above average when it comes to both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He also struggles with issuing walks and is about average with his strikeout rate. Since the Padres barely strike out, Kremer could be in trouble.
The Orioles have a 116 wRC+ with an 8.1% walk rate and a 20.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past month. They have six batters with an xwOBA above .320 (minimum 10 plate appearances) against righties over the past month, so there's not much distance between these lineups. However, the Padres will be facing lesser of the two starting pitchers.
The Orioles acquired Seranthony Domínguez on Friday to bolster their bullpen depth. Since June 27, the O’s maintain a 3.91 xFIP with a 26.2% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. They have multiple arms who can be called upon if Kremer exits early, but the depth could be an issue.
Orioles vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Since King is so much better than Kremer, this should be a no-brainer. Both teams are comparable offensively and in relief, but Kremer doesn't match up well with the Padres’ sluggers. Look for the Padres to win this one on the strength of their starting pitching. Bet San Diego to -125.
Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline (+100) | Play to to -125
