Orioles vs Rangers Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -115o / -105u | -112 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8 -115o / -105u | -108 |
Max Scherzer has returned to the Rangers' starting rotation in tremendous form — in a small sample of 27 1/3 innings, he holds a 2.96 ERA and WHIP of just 0.99. Scherzer will take the Globe Life Field mound Saturday with his side sitting 7 1/2 games back of the third AL wild card spot and in need of a massive second half to avoid a disappointing season after winning the World Series in 2023.
The Orioles kept their lead atop the A.L. East at one game with a commanding 9-1 win in the series opener, and are slight favorites once again — -112 on the moneyline — with Grayson Rodriguez on the mound Saturday.
Baltimore Orioles
Grayson Rodriguez entered this season with lofty expectations after putting together a dominant second half in 2023, and has more or less lived up to the hype in posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 99 and 2/3 innings thus far. For what it's worth, he also enters tied for the AL lead with 11 wins.
Rodriguez enters this matchup in the midst of lesser run of play in terms of runs allowed, but his underlying profile has still looked pretty steady of late. Over the last five games Rodriguez has pitched to an xFIP of 3.17, which has flown under the radar because of his ugly 22.2% HR/FB ratio in that span.
In those five outings his hard-hit rate is actually below his season average at 38%, while his strikeout rate is actually above his season average at 28%.
Rodriguez holds a tremendous Stuff+ rating of 119, as well as a Location+ rating of 102 this season.
The Orioles offense has been in strong form of late, and is currently benefiting from having zero position players on the IR. Over the last 30 days Baltimore owns a wRC+ of 121 against right-handed pitching, which ranks fourth in MLB. It has struck-out only 19% of the time in that span, and holds a ninth ranked hard-hit rate of 33.3%.
Texas Rangers
Injuries were a big part of the story in Texas' disappointing offensive play in the seasons first half, and it will need to find much better form offensively to have any kind of chance at coming back to claim a playoff berth. The Rangers rank 17th with 4.28 runs scored per game, and rank 24th with a wRC+ of 94 this season.
Over the last 30 days the Rangers have remained well below average versus right-handed pitching with a 23rd ranked wRC+ of 95, as well as an OPS of .692.
With just Evan Carter and Josh Jung remaining on the IR in terms of position players, their injury situation is still better than it has been at many other parts of the campaign.
Scherzer has achieved excellent results since returning to the lineup, and his underlying profile looks solid as well. He owns an xERA of 2.99 and an xFIP of 4.04 in his initial five starts of the season. He has
His average fastball velocity is down to just 92.7 MPH and his Stuff+ is down to only 86.
Rangers vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Rodriguez continues to feature an exceptional underlying profile and could be a pitcher to buy on heading into the second half. The Rangers offense has been in relatively poor form against righties for a fairly large sample, and could struggle to get hard contact in play against Rodriguez.
Scherzer may be due for somewhat of a drop-off in form given his significantly reduced velocity at age 39, but aside from his pitch metrics he does feature a tremendous underlying profile to start this season. He could be a good candidate to benefit from
Both bullpens remain in good shape having played just once since the break, and could do well to suppress offense when the starters come out of this ballgame, which is particularly important considering Scherzer's inability to pitch deep into games thus far.
At -115 there looks to be value backing the game to go under a total of 8 runs, and I would bet anything better than -120.
