Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Pick
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 8.5 -115/-105 | -1.5 +135 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 -115/-105 | +1.5 -160 |
The Orioles have beat up on Boston's pitching and tallied 14 runs in the opening two games of this series. That trend may continue as the Orioles are -125 favorites to complete the series sweep Thursday, when Grayson Rodriguez (2.19 ERA over 12 1/3 IP) takes on Garrett Whitlock (0.96 ERA over 9 1/3 IP).
So, let's get to my Orioles vs. Red Sox pick tonight.
Baltimore Orioles
Per Bet365, Rodriguez is sixth in the AL Cy Young race at +1600. That may take some observers by surprise, but his run of form dating back to last July suggests +1600 might not even be a bet.
Rodriguez finished last season in incredible form with a 2.58 ERA across 76 2/3 innings after the All-Star break. He followed that up with a dominant start to the 2024 campaign and boasts a 2.19 ERA and a 2.85 xFIP.
Rodriguez owns a Stuff+ rating of 114, with elite ratings on his fastball and changeup. He has also located well, with a 106 Location+ rating.
The Orioles lineup has ran a little colder than expected to start this season, but has made a clear case toward their lofty upside in this series. All signs indicate that the Orioles should trend toward being a top-third unit moving forward, especially if Jackson Holliday can provide some meaningful production from second base.
The Orioles own a wRC+ of only 97 to start the campaign. However, they rank 21st with a BABIP of .271, despite ranking second with a hard-hit percentage of 43.6. They also own the fifth-highest xSLG rating (.425).
Boston Red Sox
Whitlock is also off to an excellent start, having allowed only one earned run in road outings against the Angels and Mariners.
Whitlock pitched to a 4.61 xERA last season, and an actual ERA of 5.15 across 71 innings. The 27-year-old righty has made some adjustments to his pitch mix this year, adding a cutter and relying more heavily upon his slider.
He has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a Location+ of 102.
It will be interesting to see how Whitlock fares as batters adjust to his 2024 arsenal, as his slider is still the only pitch in his mix that rates out better than average in terms of Stuff+. In 2023, Whitlock allowed a .524 slugging percentage on his changeup, which opponents have hit to a .422 xSLG this season.
The Red Sox have hit to a wRC+ of 95 this season. They have struck out 27.1% of the time and own a BB/K ratio of only 0.33 (23rd). Their .393 xSLG rating ranks 16th in the league.
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
Rodriguez's underlying results are excellent, and his stuff rates among the elites in terms of starters. It's not much of a knock on Whitlock to suggest that the Red Sox are fighting an uphill battle in this starting pitching matchup.
The Orioles lineup has also been more productive to start the year in terms of wRC+, and projects to be the better unit. That will be especially true if Holliday proves to be an effective big leaguer from the jump.
There is value betting the Orioles at anything better than -130 in this matchup.
