The Baltimore Orioles roll out right-hander Albert Suarez, while left-hander Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Colorado Rockies this Friday at Coors Field.
Opening pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Let's take a look at the latest odds and cook up an MLB same game parlay and predictions for Orioles vs. Rockies on Friday, August 30.
Tony Sartori's Orioles vs Rockies MLB Parlay Picks for Friday, August 30
- Albert Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Austin Gomber Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
- Over 11 (-118)
Parlay Odds: +600 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Albert Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
While Suarez possesses a 3.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 26 appearances this season, his underlying metrics suggest that this luck will run out soon.
Subsequently, I believe he's a good sell-high candidate.
Entering this matchup, the right-hander sports a 4.11 xERA and .248 xBA. We're going to target this expected regression in the prop market.
Suarez ranks in the 36th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 3.5, a total he's failed to surpass in both his last start and his lone career start against Colorado.
Austin Gomber Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
We're also going to fade Gomber, who's struggled mightily this year. The southpaw is 4-9 through 25 starts with a 4.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse as he possesses a 5.18 xERA and ranks in the 29th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Like Suarez, we're going to fade Gomber in the prop market as he also ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
Furthermore, Baltimore ranks in the top half of the league in strikeout rate.
Over 11 (-118)
If we're fading both starting pitchers, then a highly correlated outcome would be for this game to also go over the total.
Suarez and Gomber both rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate.
The pitching woes don't end there, considering that both bullpens also rank in the bottom half of the league in ERA. These below-average pitching staffs will certainly have their hands full, since both lineups crack the top half of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
While 11 is a relatively high total, this game will also be played at altitude in Denver. Not only is there a Coors Field bump, but the forecast also calls for winds blowing out to left-center during the game.
