Padres vs Cubs Odds, Pick
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-104 | 7 -122o / +100u | -1.5 +168 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 7 -122o / +100u | +1.5 -205 |
The San Diego Padres continue their road trip when they travel to Chicago on Monday evening to begin a three-game set against the Cubs.
Yu Darvish gets the ball for the Padres, who are trying to establish some consistency in the first quarter of the season.
On the other side, Justin Steele — who's returning from an early-season hamstring injury — will take the mound for the Cubs. Despite his absence from the rotation, Chicago is off to a solid 21-14 start.
We might have a pitchers' duel on our hands, but let's break down both teams below as we make a Padres vs. Cubs pick for Monday, May 6.
San Diego Padres
In a limited sample size, Padres hitters are a combined 9-of-34 against Steele, good for a .265 batting average. However, I wouldn't put much stock into this, but Steele is an established top-of-the-rotation arm.
With Steele coming off an injury, it's unclear how long he's going to pitch in this game. With that, the Padres' plan of attack should be to work the pitch count and force the Cubs to use a lot of their bullpen.
The ultimate key to the game lies on the arm of Yu Darvish. Darvish has been mediocre to begin the season, and his strikeout rate is down from previous seasons. He owns a 25.5 CSW%, so he's still missing some bats — just not at an elite level.
The former Cub has solid numbers against their current slew of hitters, as they're batting .206 against him.
Darvish is notorious for allowing free passes, and the same could be said through the first 1.5 months of the season. He could find himself in some trouble if that trend continues. The Padres' bullpen could certainly use some rest after yesterday's 12-4 loss to the Diamondbacks, so Darvish's efficiency is contingent on their success tonight.
The Padres' bats should find success if they knock Steele out of the game early. They rank second in MLB in batting average but possess a .651 OPS and .195 BA against left-handed pitchers.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs find themselves at 21-14, which is good for second in the NL Central. They've played exceptionally well despite some key injuries to Steele, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger.
Steele returns tonight against a Padres team that struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. If he can pitch deep into the game, I like the Cubs' chances to pull out the victory.
The offense takes on a former teammate in Darvish, but Chicago's numbers are nothing to write home about. The Cubs offense does strike out a fair amount, so this is a lineup Darvish can find success against.
After Darvish exits, the Cubs will fare much better against a horrible Padres bullpen that ranks in the league's bottom five. Runs should come later in the ballgame, which leads me to my betting pick below.
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Padres vs Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
I really like the first-five under for this matchup.
Both Steele and Darvish should make it through five innings as long as their pitch counts allow them to do so. If that's the case, I think we see a low-scoring affair early on.
All bets are off once the starters exit the game, as I expect the offenses to pick up the slack. It could be a great live betting opportunity once both starters are out, but let's first get the F5 under home before that comes into play.
