Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 9 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -175 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -135 | 9 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +145 |
The Dodgers and Padres will renew their dramatic rivalry on Friday, just days after L.A. took a three-game set on the road at Petco Park. Returning to Dodger Stadium, can the NL West leaders do it again?
Let's break down Friday's series opener in our Padres vs. Dodgers preview and prediction.
San Diego Padres
Things have been going a bit better at the plate for the San Diego Padres, yet they find themselves coming into Friday the losers of four games in their last five. San Diego got out in front of Minnesota on Thursday before falling by two runs, and fell by one run the night before. Prior to that, they managed to take the first of three at home against the Dodgers before suffering a couple more close losses.
San Diego is still rocking an 86 wRC+ over the last week with a high 26.1% strikeout rate, but has been able to pad those strikeout issues with a 12.4% walk rate and decent .140 Isolated Power. The strikeouts and general lack of contact have certainly hindered the lineup, but there are still some redeeming qualities.
Unfortunately, it seems there are no longer any redeeming qualities with Blake Snell. The lefty did turn in his best start of the season last time out against the Dodgers, striking out six over six frames. He allowed just one hit but gave up two runs thanks to three walks and a homer, which has been the story throughout his career.
Snell's battled issues with control for years and has had a barrel rate of at least 9.8% in three of the last four years, counting this one. He's always been a high-strikeout arm which has helped him limit the damage, but he's struck out just 24.8% of the batters he's faced this season which would be his lowest mark since 2017.
He still ranks in the top 10% of all pitchers in whiff rate, but his fastball is getting knocked around too much for that to convert into puchouts.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are another interesting case offensively. They, too, own an 86 wRC+ over the last week but have taken a much different path there. Their .211 ISO ranks second in the the league during that time and they've coupled that with an excellent 20.9% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate.
The issue has been putting the bat to the ball; L.A.'s 76.1% contact rate ranks 23rd in baseball over the last seven days and with that the team is hitting just .181.
Speaking of contact, Dustin May has been brilliant at getting outs without missing many bats. Despite a low 18.4% punchout rate he's pitched to a 2.68 ERA thanks to a .223 expected batting average against and a 5.4% barrel rate.
He turned in his best outing of the year against the Padres last go around, spinning six scoreless innings and allowing just three hits and a walk against six strikeouts.
May's been up and down in the walk department for his career and on the season, and it was great to see him walk just one Padres batter after issuing seven free passes in his previous two outings. That becomes particularly impressive given the Padres' high walk rate over the last week.
Padres vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
Both of these pitchers have their flaws, and both of these offenses have packed a real punch in the power department and have gotten on base plenty via the walk. The hang-up for me here is the poor contact numbers for both sides. As much as I dislike Snell and as many times as I've doubted May, I think both of them should run it back and repeat their performances against these respective teams.
May's strikeout touch may be coming back to him, and against some eager San Diego bats I think he should be able to limit the damage given his expected stats to this point. Snell's also had some of his best performances as a pro against the Dodgers and that matchup seemed to pull the best out of him last week.
I'll go ahead and bet on both arms here.
Pick: Under 9 (-102) |
