Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +128 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -152 |
It's only fitting that one of the top rivalries in the National League gives us a rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball. The San Diego Padres will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers with a chance to take the lead season series, as this will be the fifth meeting between these clubs already.
We have seen what makes both of these clubs contenders, as the men on the mound and at the plate have shined through the first two games. However, the outcome of this game may be a surprise when you consider all the start talent in this matchup.
So, what's the best angle for Sunday Night Baseball? Let's dive into our Padres vs. Dodgers pick and prediction for Sunday to find out.
San Diego Padres
If you were going to point out where the offense would come from in this matchup, the obvious first choice would be the Dodgers lineup. However, the Padres have quietly been very productive offensively and have shown few signs of regression.
The Padres are third in baseball in xBA and ninth in baseball in wRC+. However, their high xBA is peculiar as they rank in the bottom half of baseball in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
What it stems from is their ablity to put the ball in play a large majority of the time. Only Manny Machado and Tyler Wade have above-average strikeout rates, but that may only play into the strength of Dodgers starter James Paxton.
Paxton looks revitalized in Dodger blue, and he has leaned into creating soft contact in his age-35 season. Paxton ranks in the 76th percentile in barrel rate allowed and in the 70th percentile in xBA.
The veteran lefty has been very tough to square up, and if the Padres are going to be aggressive, he should generate plenty of quick outs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging 5.43 runs per game, and they have yet to peak offensively. LA has been carried by Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani thus far, but we have yet to see any consistency out of the other seven bats in the order.
While the Dodgers lead the majors in xWOBACON and are clearly making hard contact, the fact is that this lineup is very top-heavy, and with baseball being a game of failure for even the best on the field, we will see some quiet nights from this lineup.
Padres starter Yu Darvish will play a significant role in keeping the Dodgers at bay tonight. The 37-year-old Darvish has yet to find his footing in 2024, as we've seen mixed results in his first three outings.
However, the veteran has seen a ton of this Dodgers lineup and is due to continue his career-long success against them tonight. The Dodgers have accumulated 192 at-bats against Darvish and are hitting just .203 combined with a wOBA of .289.
Those results are due to a combined average exit velocity of just 87.8 mph. So, if Darvish can regain some of his old form tonight, we should see the zeroes on the scoreboard in the early going.
Padres vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite producing well in the early going of the season, both of these lineups are due to take a step back, and we should see it tonight. Each starter has the tools to keep the big bats quiet and will also benefit from a pitcher-friendly environment.
The winds at Chavez Ravine will be calm, and the temperature will be relatively cool, at just 55 degrees through the late afternoon in Los Angeles. The ball will not carry as well, which should give both starters the edge, as they likely won't be hurt by one or two big swings.
Lastly, both of these teams' bullpens have struggled mightily, and we've already seen the Padres do damage against the Dodgers' pen in this series. So, I'm going to take them out of the equation and take the under in the first five.
