Editor's note: Yu Darvish was scratched from tonight's start because of illness. Reiss Knehr will start for the Padres.
Padres vs. Pirates Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -188 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -115 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -104 |
The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't been able to raise the Jolly Roger much of late as they come into this series-opening matchup having won just once over their last 10 ball games.
Tonight, they're at home and will welcome in the San Diego Padres, who've had struggles of their own.
To this point, San Diego has performed well below expectations, as it's four games under .500 and is 9.5 games out of the NL West lead.
However, the Padres have an opportunity to begin their turnaround tonight in Pittsburgh. Will they get back to winning ways? Or are the Pirates primed for an upset?
Let's take a closer look to find out.
San Diego Padres
San Diego's struggles this season have stemmed from its inconsistency at the dish. The Padres are hitting just .232 as a team and only have an xBA of .238.
With the level of talent littered throughout their lineup, these are shocking results, as those numbers would put them in the bottom third of the league.
While I highlight their struggles overall, the Padres are in a great spot to get the bats going tonight as they face Pittsburgh's Rich Hill. The 43-year-old lefty showed some flashes earlier in the year, but Hill has begun to regress.
He's been able to give the Pirates more length than we've seen from him in years past, but they've begun to leave him out to dry. He's not missing many bats and is allowing a great deal of hard contact.
His season ERA is 4.34, but he's due for even more regression, as his xERA is 5.40 and his SIERA is 4.58. The Padres should knock him closer to those expected numbers tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Despite harping on the Pirates' lineup, their production is not nearly as bad over the last two weeks.
I mentioned in the intro that Pittsburgh is 1-9 in its previous 10 games, and it's mainly because it's been nonexistent at the plate.
Over the last two weeks, Pittsburgh is last in the majors in team batting average and wRC+. However, they're not just last by a bit, as their numbers are startlingly bad. They're hitting .176 and have a wRC+ of 46.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, but fortunately for us, its numbers are in line to get worse tonight when facing Yu Darvish.
On the surface, Darvish has struggled a bit, with his ERA sitting at 4.84 entering this start. However, many of his metrics are around or better than they were last year. That explains the positive regression that his xERA of 3.61 indicates.
Padres vs. Pirates Betting Pick
This is a matchup that we can't overthink. The Pirates are declining rapidly and will be facing an ace in Darvish who's overdue for a great outing.
On the other side, we know the potential of this Padres lineup and how dangerous it can be. We should see San Diego get to Rich Hill, who's begun to show his age on the mound.
Back the Padres to be up halfway through this one.
Pick: Padres F5 -0.5 |
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