Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Pick
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 11 -115o / -105u | -1.5 -108 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 11 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -112 |
The Padres and Rockies continue their four-game series on Wednesday at Coors Field.
San Diego is looking to shake off a 7-4 loss on Tuesday, a game in which starter Michael King allowed six runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 innings. The Padres will be counting on a longer outing from righty Matt Waldron, who has pitched to an ERA of 4.74 in 19 innings.
The Rockies have not yet confirmed their starting pitcher, but it appears likely to be Ty Blach to open a potential bullpen game. Blach's contract was selected from Triple-A Albuquerque on Sunday. He pitched to a 5.54 ERA and 1.64 WHIP across 78 big-league innings last season.
Find my Padres vs. Rockies pick in my MLB Betting preview below.
San Diego Padres
Despite a modest 13-13 record, all indications seem to suggest that Mike Shildt has created a far more team-friendly environment inside the Padres clubhouse.
Their offensive play has been sound to this point, averaging 4.81 runs per game with a team wRC+ of 112, which is seventh-best in MLB.
Owning the league's fourth-worst BABIP with RISP in 2023 masked what was an otherwise strong offensive process from the Padres. They have been more effective in at-bats with runners on in 2024 thus far — they own the 13th-best OPS (.792) in those situations. Their BB/K of 0.50 ranks fourth in MLB, and on top of strong plate discipline, they hold the league's ninth-best xSLG at .414.
However, San Diego will be without Manny Machado (paternity list) once again.
Matt Waldron will look to rebound from an ugly outing against the Blue Jays on Friday. Waldron allowed seven hits and five runs across 4 2/3 innings. He allowed an xBA of .297 and struck out just two batters.
He has pitched to a Stuff+ of 87 and Location+ of 102, and he he holds an xFIP of 4.53 across 19 innings. Most projection systems expected an ERA around 4.65 this season, and his early results suggest that mark is accurate.
Waldron owns a ground-ball percentage of only 32.3% in 2024, which is a potential concern as he pitches in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field.
Colorado Rockies
With Kyle Freeland on the injured list, it appears 31-year-old Ty Blach will get another chance to pitch in the big leagues.
Blach pitched to a 5.54 ERA in 2023. His expected results were comparably bad, as he owned an xERA of 7.26 and an xFIP of 5.01. He pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 77,and Location+ of 102.
The left-hander did not fare well pitching in Coors Field in 2023, with an ERA of 5.09 and WHIP of 1.78 in 35 1/3 innings. Opponents had a miss rate of just 15% versus Blach in 2023, which was the second-lowest mark of any starter to pitch 73 or more innings.
As expected, the Rockies have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They own a wRC+ of 76 and have struck out 26.7% of the time.
They projected to be slightly better in splits versus right-handed pitching prior to the season though, which was the case in 2023. So far that has proven to be true, as they own a wRC+ of 81 versus righties (compared to 63 versus lefties).
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Padres vs. Rockies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Padres are in the league's top quarter in terms of offensive production thus far, and their underlying process suggests that they should continue to be dominant offensively moving forward.
Blach could pitch to much improved splits in 2024, but it is still likely that the Padres get to him for several runs early on before getting into a soft Rockies bullpen.
Waldron should prove to be well below league average in his own right though, and the Rockies are going to be a little less pathetic in splits versus right-handed pitching.
Wind will be blowing in slightly at first pitch, but Coors Field's gigantic outfield should still produce a great run-scoring environment nonetheless. Even a high total of 11 looks a touch low to me in this soft pitching matchup — anything better than -125 is worthy of a play on the over at 11.
