Padres vs. Yankees Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8.5 -108/ -112 | +1.5 -150 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -158 | 9 -108/ -112 | -1.5 +125 |
Luis Severino has finally found his way back to the New York Yankees’ mound yet again. When healthy, he is one of their most effective pitchers, and he showcased that in his first outing, going 4 1/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds and only yielding one run on five baserunners. In that start, he limited the Reds' hard contact, which is one area he looks to improve upon from his 2022 season.
He will face Michael Wacha and the San Diego Padres. Wacha may have been viewed as an "innings eater” for the Padres coming into the 2023 campaign, but he has overachieved, at least on expectations. He has been phenomenal as of late and should be able to at least keep some of that momentum going.
Both the Padres and Yankees have enough artillery in the bullpen to keep the offenses at bay, so the under should be in play for much of the game.
San Diego Padres
Wacha signed with the Padres in the middle of February, so him having a 3.58 ERA has definitely surpassed expectations. His xERA does come into this game a touch above 4.00, but the last month last been impressive from the savvy veteran.
In May, over the course of 25 innings and four starts, Wacha has a 0.35 ERA. He has only given up 11 hits and seven walks. This is a run he can continue against the Yankees, despite the big bats in the middle of the order.
Michael Wacha fans four
Michael Wacha strikes out four batters over six innings in his scoreless start against the Red Sox
Red Sox @ Padres#BringTheGold | May 21, 2023 pic.twitter.com/ggeElzfjGF
— San Diego Strong (23-27) (@PadresStrong) May 22, 2023
The Padres on offense have struggled with right-handed pitching this month. They own a team wRC+ of 82, ranking 25th in MLB. They do have a 12.9% walk rate, but patience does not always lead to power. Their OPS is .635, so they are simply not driving in the runners who walk.
On the season, only four active hitters have eclipsed a .330 xwOBA off righties. It does not help that Manny Machado is on the injured list. In his place, Rougned Odor has seen more playing time, but can he really continue the hot stretch he is currently in the middle of? That is highly unlikely.
In relief, the Padres have a team xFIP of 4.21, which is in the middle of the league. They have four relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, so these should be the options, if the game is within reach.
New York Yankees
Severino flashed some brilliance in that outing against the Reds, allowing a hardest hit ball of just 93.7 mph. Last season, he ranked in the 25th percentile of Average Exit Velocity, so this can be an improvement to look for this season.
Over 102 innings pitched, the righty had a 3.18 ERA against a 2.94 xERA, so when he pitched, he dazzled. Since the Padres have not been successful with right-handed pitching, he should do so on Saturday.
The Yankees lineup is the concern for the under in this game. They have a team wRC+ of 112 this month with a .766 OPS. Aaron Judge has an xwOBA over .500 against righties, so he is by far the best hitter — as everyone knows. They have four other active hitters above .330, so they are slightly better off than San Diego. Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Trevino being on the injured list does not help, though.
In relief, the Yankees have fared moderately well with a team xFIP of 4.07 in May. They are also stranding runners at a 76.2% rate. They have three relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, but they should be back to the top of the league in no time. If Severino can remain accurate, he can give them at least five strong innings to reduce the bullpen strain.
Padres vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Overall, pitching should prevail in this one.
Wacha can continue his run, as long as he can get around Judge. The rest of the Yankee lineup is workable. Severino did well in his first start and can manage a weaker-than-average San Diego lineup at the moment.
Take the under in this game from 9 (-105), and play it to 8.5 (-120).
Pick: Under 9 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-112 | Play to -120) |
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