The "Payoff Pitch" podcast is back, which means it's time for more MLB best bets. Our MLB betting experts have a pair of best bets for Tuesday, including plays in Pirates vs. Reds and Twins vs. Diamondbacks.
So, be sure to continue reading, and listen to the latest episode of "Payoff Pitch" for Tuesday's best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | Reds Moneyline (-120) |
  | 9:40 p.m. | Diamondbacks F5 (+110) |
Reds Moneyline (-120) vs. Pirates
7:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Let's begin with the pitching matchup, where I think Hunter Greene is simply better than Mitch Keller.
Greene has taken a bit of heat off his arsenal, which has resulted in a much improved bat-on-ball profile. He has brought his xERA down to a career low and his stuff is ridiculous. These two faced off last week and both guys threw seven shutout innings. Greene had nine strikeouts, no walks and a 25% hard contact rate allowed.
Keller had seven strikeouts, two walks and a 38% hard contact rate allowed. The Pirates scraped out a 1-0 victory, but I think Greene was the better pitcher in that game. While the Reds' offense is inconsistent, it has a far higher ceiling than the Pirates', which has been among the worst lineups against righties this season. The Pirates have a .630 OPS, a 25% strikeout rate, a 45% ground-ball rate and just a 22% fly-ball rate.
As I have said many times on this podcast, I love the Reds' bullpen, which is top-five by all metrics. The Pirates bullpen is closer to below average. At moderately low juice, I'm willing to back the Reds to avenge last week's close loss.
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Diamondbacks F5 (+110) vs. Twins
9:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Brandon Pfaadt is a positive regression candidate with an xERA about a run lower than his actual ERA.
He has done a great job this season of dominating with all of his off-speed pitches. Although his fastball has been just OK, he has been able to locate it in the middle- to upper-part of the zone and is generating a decent fly-ball rate. His sweeper has been incredible. It has a Stuff+ rating of 138 and a whiff rate of 35% with only a .220 expected on-base average. The Twins are one of the best fastball-hitting teams and one of the worst against sweepers, so if Pfaadt can utilize his sweeper more often tonight, he will be very successful.
Joe Ryan takes the mound for the Twins and he pitched really well to start the season, but since entering the month of June, he has begun to fall apart. He now has an xFIP over 4.00 and has developed a bit of a home run problem. This is a decent spot for the Diamondbacks, especially at plus money, as they clearly have an offensive advantage in this matchup. I want to avoid the bullpens because the Diamondbacks' has been terrible.
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