The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 29, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Phillies are favored by -161 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
- Phillies vs Marlins Pick: Phillies ML
My Phillies vs Marlins best bet is Philadelphia moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -128 | 8 -110o / -102u | -161 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +106 | 8 -110o / -102u | +135 |
- Phillies vs Marlins moneyline: Phillies -161, Marlins +135
- Phillies vs Marlins over/under: 8 (-110o / -102u)
- Phillies vs Marlins spread: Phillies -1.5 (+106), Marlins +1.5 (-128)
Phillies vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| LHP Jesús Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Ryan Gusto (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 3.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.31/2.85 | ERA / xERA | 4.50/4.35 |
| 2.92/2.92 | FIP / xFIP | 3.58/4.33 |
| 22.4% | K-BB% | 13.2% |
| 50.8% | GB% | 38.3% |
| .313 | BABIP | .298 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 98 |
Phillies vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies will hand the ball to a former Marlin, Jesus Luzardo. The long-awaited breakout year for Luzardo has arrived. Luzardo boasts a 3.31 ERA with a 2.92 xERA and a 2.85 FIP.
Very few pitchers are better than Luzardo at getting a mixture of strikeouts and groundball outs. He boasts a career-high 11.2 K/9 and a 50% GB%, which is over 8% higher than last year. The increase in grounders has helped Luzardo cut his HR/9 to 0.81.
Offensively, the Phillies have just a 90 wRC+ in their last 22 games. That's the danger of being a team that goes as two players do. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper shoulder much of the offense's load — and Harper is hitting .160 with a 71 wRC+ in his last 22 games.
The good news? Trea Turner, JT Realmuto and Bryson Stott are finally contributing! Turner leads the team with a 121 wRC+ and five homers in July, while Stott is second with a 123 wRC+. The boost from Realmuto is real, as his batting average is up to .381 in his last 15 games coming into Tuesday.
I think I'll buy stock in this Phillies lineup. Some of these bats did nothing to support Schwarber and Harper in the first half, and the tide seems to be turning.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
It was a brutal two-week stretch in Miami heading into this series. It blew the lead on Sunday against the Padres to end its losing streak at 12 games. Facing a divisional foe in the Phillies changed the Marlins' fortunes, as they won the first two games of the series.
The Marlins have yet to announce a starter for Wednesday at the time of writing, but manager Clayton McCullough indicated that Ryan Gusto will pitch a decent amount.
There's nothing to write home about with Gusto. He's a fine innings eater, posting a 4.50 ERA with a 4.35 xERA and 3.58 FIP in 34 innings this year. Miami usually lets him pitch three innings and then turns it over to a bullpen that ranks 14th in ERA.
Miami had an uncharacteristically cold hitting stretch from the losing streak into Tuesday's action, ranking 28th in MLB with a 76 wRC+ in 13 games.
Three of the Marlins' most reliable bats, Otto Lopez (47 wRC+), Liam Hicks (91 wRC+), and Xavier Edwards (28 wRC+), all started slumping at the same time. I wouldn't count on that continuing. Lopez was an All-Star, and the other have made a name for themselves as solid MLB hitters.
The issue I see in this matchup is how the Marlins match up with Luzardo. Too many of the Marlins' better hitters are lefties that can't hit lefties. Kyle Stowers, Hicks, and Griffin Conine have come up with big moments, and none of them can hit southpaws. Miami will have to rely on dinking and dunking more since those are three of its better power bats.
Phillies vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
I'll take the Phillies as road favorites here. I think Luzardo is one of the best pitchers in the NL, and he'll be able to carve up this reeling Marlins lineup. During their losing skid, they had a 25% strikeout rate, which Luzardo can use to his advantage.
Pick: Phillies ML
