The Philadelphia Phillies (59-44) and New York Yankees (56-47) will face off in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MLB Network.
Philadelphia is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New York is +110 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 9 total runs.
Continue below for my Phillies vs Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, July 26.
Phillies vs Yankees Picks, Prediction
- Phillies vs Yankees pick: Phillies Moneyline (-130)
My Phillies vs Yankees best bet is on Philadelphia moneyline, with the bets odds currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Yankees Odds for Saturday, July 26
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 9 -115o / -105u | +110 |
Phillies vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0 |
| 2.66 / 3.17 | ERA /xERA | 5.64 / 5.44 |
| 3.07 / 3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 5.27 / 4.75 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.48 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 5.2% |
| 49.2% | GB% | 51% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 111 | Location+ | 102 |
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees MLB Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Hurling on the same pitching staff as Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez has overshadowed the fact that Ranger Suárez is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Through 14 starts this season, Suárez is 7-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, the left-hander ranks in the top quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Suárez is a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in wins above replacement (WAR).
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support.
This season, Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS.
That success is likely to continue against Marcus Stroman.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
While Suárez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, Stroman has been one of the worst.
Through seven starts for the Yankees, Stroman owns a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
His analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely.
The former first-round draft pick ranks in the 11th percentile or lower in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Not only do the Phillies possess the stronger starting pitcher, but their bullpen also outranks New York’s in WAR.
There is no denying that the Yankees possess one of the most powerful lineups in baseball.
However, Suárez rarely gives up the long ball, which neutralizes New York’s greatest strength.
Phillies vs Yankees Betting Predictions
The Yankees own the superior lineup and are at home, which is why the Phillies are only -124 on the moneyline.
However, the gap between these starting pitchers is far wider than the gap between the lineups.
Furthermore, as noted above, Suárez is among the best in baseball at limiting hard contact.
If you take away the power aspect of the Yankees’ lineup, you take away their primary method of run production.
Phillies vs Yankees Best Bet
- Phillies ML (-130)
Phillies vs Yankees Betting Trends
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