The Atlanta Braves look to split a four-game series against their divisional NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday night. The Braves enter Sunday Night Baseball with a 1 1/2-game lead over the New York Mets for the third and final NL wild-card spot.
The Braves will send out Spencer Schwellenbach on Sunday, arguably their best starting pitcher to date. The Phillies will counter with veteran right-hander Aaron Nola. Here's my Sunday Night Baseball parlay for Phillies vs Braves, which features props for Bryce Harper, Spencer Schwellenbach and more.
Sunday Night Baseball Parlay Picks & Props for Phillies vs Braves
- Spencer Schwellenbach Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
- Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
- Under 8.5 Runs (-130)
Parlay Odds: +750 (bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Spencer Schwellenbach Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
This is the Action Pro top prop of the game. It’s a very scary one given Schwellebach’s reputation, but the projections have this closer to 5.6 strikeouts, a +17.8% edge based on the market at hand.
It’s easy to want nothing to do with this prop. Schwellenbach has gone over this number in seven straight starts, including a nine strikeout performance against the Phillies in late August. But this is likely the top of the market for the right-hander.
Over the last 30 days, the Phillies rank around league average in strikeout rate. This is also a better run environment with the wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park — and a slight chance of rain.
I’m going to trust the projections here, no matter how disgusting the bet is. For what it’s worth, we do get Schwellenbach on the road against a team that just faced him less than two weeks ago.
Hopefully, familiarity wins out.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Bryce Harper is starting to crush the baseball. The last step is giving it some lift, but if you look at his rolling hard-hit and line drive graphs, the data speaks for itself.
He hasn’t put up gaudy numbers like in the first half of the season. But the corner is starting to be turned for the superstar lefty slugger. Over the last week, he is hitting .375 with four doubles. He has 2+ hits in three of his last six games.
So you can decide here whether you want to go long shot with a home run, or play it safe with the total bases. Harper has not hit a home run since August 9. The matchup could lend itself to some success, too.
Schwellenbach is overpowering for right-handed hitters (.197 average, .580 OPS), but against lefties it’s a different story. His numbers are still good, but his average-against jumps over 50 points, and lefties have a 44% extra-base hit rate against the rookie.
Harper went 1-for-3 against Schwellenbach. I tend to think it’s only a matter of time before he hits a home run — but I am fully expecting a strong offensive performance from Harper today in a NL East bout. He is the Phillies leader in wRC+ (137) against right-handed pitching.
Under 8.5 Runs (-130)
Both Schwellenbach (3.04 xERA) and Aaron Nola (3.87 xERA) are pitchers that I am high on in general. Both have shown flashes of elite control and they rarely put runners on base.
Schwellenbach is due for positive regression given his underlying metrics. I know we are fading him in the strikeout department, but he ranks in the 75th percentile or better in xBA, chase rate, walk rate and barrels allowed. There actually isn’t an area where the rookie right-hander is below average through his 15 starts at Baseball Savant. Imagine that.
Then you get to Nola who has found his groove in August. The right-hander has thrown 19 innings of two-run ball in his last three starts. His barrel rate has dipped down one percent from last season and we’re seeing less hard contact. He also gets to pitch at home where his ERA (2.87) is nearly a run better than on the road (3.78).
Both starting pitchers will be taken out for dominant bullpens, too. Over the last 30 days, the Braves have the No. 3 bullpen in baseball in terms of xFIP (3.62). Philadelphia is 12th. Over the entire season, both are planted inside the top five.
Tack on the fact that over the last 30 days, both offenses rank in the bottom half of all teams in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and we could see a low-scoring late night divisional bout.
We can also see via the Action app that 65% of bets but just 49% of the money has come in on the over. We can also see that sharp money is coming in on the under.
Despite two games this series reaching 9+ runs, I am fully expecting both bullpens to be emptied and reverse recent history. These are two fantastic starting pitchers being spoiled by arguably even better bullpens. This should be a low-scoring game.
