The Phillies are -130 favorites on the moneyline against the Diamondbacks for tonight's NLCS Game 5 at Chase Field in Phoenix. Arizona is a +110 underdog.
The total has been set at 8 with the juice -104 to the over and -118 to the under. A spread bet on the Phillies -1.5 would be +118, while Diamondbacks +1.5 is -142.
Here are our best bets and Phillies vs. Diamondbacks picks and predictions for NLCS Game 5 on Saturday, October 21.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Game 5 Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -104o / -118u | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -104o / -118u | +110 |
Zack Wheeler Over 16.5 Outs Recorded
-130 at DraftKings
By D.J. James
Zack Wheeler has been a juggernaut in the postseason. He was great in 2022 and has somehow stepped up in 2023. He has 26 strikeouts to only one walk in the playoffs thus far. He has a 0.63 WHIP and 2.37 ERA over 19 innings.
In the regular season, he had an Average Exit Velocity of 86.9 mph, a Barrel Rate of 5.1% and a Hard-Hit Rate of 36.4%. His walk rate was 5% with a strikeout rate of 26.9%, which is astounding. Finally, his Pitching Run Value ranked in the 97th percentile, mainly due to a fastball which had a .261 xwOBA on it this season.
In the playoffs, the Diamondbacks have only really seen production on the offensive end from three bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno. Only three bats are above a .320 OBP, and everyone in the lineup has a playoff strikeout rate of 24% or higher.
The Phillies' bullpen is gassed after Friday night's game and has proven untrustworthy of late as well, including blowing last night's game. Given Wheeler's postseason pedigree and the need to relieve a tired and overworked bullpen, I would expect manager Rob Thomson to give his horse some leash tonight.
I would bet Wheeler to complete six innings.
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Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
-105 at DraftKings
By Doug Ziefel
It has not been a great NLCS for Nicky Two Bags, as he's mustered just one hit through the first four games of this series. However, this will be his second look at Zac Gallen this postseason, and he is due for some positive regression against him.
This season, Castellanos is 2-for-7 against Gallen but has an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph, which means he's been making plenty of hard contact and is due to be rewarded moving forward.
That also applies to his sample size in this series overall. We have not seen Castellanos struggle much this season, and his track record points to him breaking out sooner rather than later.
Castellanos has gone over this total in 54% of games this season, which gives us implied odds of -117 that he'll do so again tonight.
