Phillies vs. Giants Predictions
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-116 | 7.5 -128o / +104u | -1.5 +138 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 7.5 -128o / +104u | +1.5 -166 |
The San Francisco Giants have caught fire in recent weeks, taking eight of their last 10, and will be riding high on Monday as they return home for a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Toeing the slab for this one will be two wildly unpredictable starters in Taijuan Walker and Blake Snell. Both have pitched in a limited number of games this year due to injuries, but neither has really shown too many redeeming qualities.
With both offenses scorching hot at the moment, is there one we should trust more here? Should we target the total instead?
Let's answer those questions in my Phillies vs. Giants predictions below.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Giants may be hot, but we can't ignore the Phillies' run of 10 wins in 13 games either. It's just not as surprising given the talent that this offense possesses, and they've been a notch worse in total run production.
Still, Philly enters this one with a shiny 112 wRC+ over the past two weeks, which puts them eighth in the league. It has done an excellent job of limiting strikeouts at a fantastic 16.9% while walking in a league-high 10.7% of plate appearances.
The Phils have produced a .160 Isolated Power to boot, though they're slightly off their season-long pace and has come with a 10-point drop in batting average. Given there's been a slight influx of line drives of late and fewer ground balls, this may simply be a bit of bad fortune and you might say Philly should be even hotter at the moment.
One guy who's quietly been hot is Walker, at least for his standards. The journeyman owns a 3.98 ERA in the month of May, though the caveat is that he's pitched just four innings on average over his last two outings and his one good start came against the Marlins, where he scattered eight hits over six frames of one-run ball.
Walker had a tough time limiting walks last time out, issuing four free passes over 4 2/3 innings to bring his walk rate to 8.7% — something that hurts when you consider he's pitched to a friendly .277 Expected Batting Average and a poor 30.5% ground-ball rate. He's long pitched to contact, and while he made some strides in the ground-ball department over the last few years, he's seemed to take a step back so far this year.
San Francisco Giants
Snell is an interesting case. It's hard to read into his numbers here considering he made three outings after missing the entirety of Spring Training due to a lengthy free agency. He then returned from a month-long injury layoff to allow four runs on four hits and four walks over 3 1/3 to the Pirates.
So, perhaps Snell isn't full formed here in 2024. Still, we can criticize him for an 11.7% walk rate considering he was one of the guiltiest pitchers in baseball in that category a season ago, and the drop in strikeouts has been incredibly concerning.
With that said, though, he's still inducing whiffs at a 32.4% rate, which puts him inside the top 8% of all pitchers. And he struck out five against Pittsburgh, so perhaps those numbers will rise in time. He's also managed to pitch to a splendid 52% ground-ball ratem, which would be the best of his career, and the Giants have been known over the years of teaching their arms to induce contact in the dirt. They may, indeed, be cooking here.
Speaking of which, let's talk about this offense. We've known the Giants to be a better team on the road, sure, but now that Jorge Soler has rejoined the team and Matt Chapman has begun to hit, the Giants have ranked as the third-best offense in baseball over the last two weeks by wRC+.
Best of all, they're not striking out, at just 17.6% and walking in 9.7% of plate appearances. These are two areas that have been troublesome in the past.
Phillies vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
It may seem slightly terrifying to trust either pitcher here, but I'm willing to buy low on Snell. His defense has ranked ninth in Outs Above Average so far this season and he's managed to maintain a high swinging strike rate while pitching to more ground balls.
Yes, walks have been a problem for both guys, but Snell could very well be on the brink of returning to dominance in the strikeout department, and his ability to induce more ground balls should only help him return to form.
Neither team will be slugging the ball out of the park with frequency here, and if you agree that hits will win this game, you've got to fade the pitcher who's been a machine at allowing baserunners versus the slightly hotter of the two offenses.
I expect Snell to turn in a good outing any day now, and this seems to be a good spot for him to do it. Philly's power should be a bit suppressed and I think it will do something rare, which is fall victim to the punchout.
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