Phillies vs Guardians Odds
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +136 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -162 |
Phillies vs Guardians odds for Saturday's interleague matchup have the Phillies as -162 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9.5 (+100o / -120u).
The starting pitching matchup for this contest at Citizens Bank Park features right-hander Carlos Carrasco for Cleveland and right-hander Tyler Phillips for Philadelphia.
Find my Phillies vs Guardians preview along with my pick and prediction in my Saturday MLB betting guide for this interleague matchup below.
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillips has put together a tremendous start to his debut campaign, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.81 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through his first three appearances on the mound. However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming as he possesses a 3.52 xERA and would rank (if he officially qualified) in the bottom half of the league in xBA and barrel rate.
The good news for the right-hander is that he should expect to receive plenty of run support. Philadelphia ranks in the top-six of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
This success at the dish is likely to continue against Carrasco. Through 138 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Phillies lineup boasts a .256 BA, .395 SLG and .301 wOBA.
Cleveland Guardians
Speaking of Carrasco, he is likely to get jumped by this lineup once again. He is 3-8 through 18 starts this season with a fade-worthy 5.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
His analytics are equally poor as Carrasco ranks in the 34th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and strikeout rate. As mentioned above, these woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team he possesses a 4.60 ERA against over the past three meetings.
However, like Phillips, Carrasco should receive a solid amount of run support. This season, Cleveland ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Phillies vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
Nine is a relatively high total, but we are catching a generous price on the over at -105 via BetMGM, a line that is 10-17 cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing. At that price, I am optimistic in the chances of this game reaching at least nine total runs.
Both lineups can put up runs, considering that each team ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. These lineups should be able to capitalize against Carrasco (who has struggled all year) and Phillips (who is due for regression).
My main concern in backing the over is that both bullpens are among the best in baseball. With that said, I think all the other variables outweigh that fact.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 at BetMGM | Play to -110)
