Baseball isn't boring in America, but let's try growing the great game by heading to England for a battle between the Phillies and Mets.
Let's take a dive into the game by picking out a three-leg Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay for the NL East clash in London.
Here's my Phillies vs Mets Saturday parlay, which features picks for Ranger Suarez, Nick Castellanos, and the Phils moneyline.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Phillies vs Mets Saturday Same Game Parlay
- Ranger Suárez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
- Phillies ML (-150)
Parlay Odds: +490 (BetMGM)
Ranger Suárez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
I had to do a double take when I saw the line for Ranger Suárez's strikeouts in this primetime game in London. The Phillies left-hander is one of the top pitchers in the National League and likely the current NL CY Young front-runner with a 1.70 ERA in 74 innings. He's done nothing but impress, besides a rough start in Coors Field.
Prior to leaving his last start early after taking a comebacker to his left hand, Suárez punched out nine and 10 batters in starts against the Rangers and Rockies.
The Mets lineup strikes out 20.7% of the time, a little less than the 21% league average. However, two of the more prominent Mets hitters, J.D. Martinez and Brandon Nimmo, go down swinging on 29% and 23% of at-bats, respectively.
Suárez has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in all but two starts this year, excluding the one start when he departed early. He's striking out more than a batter per inning and should remain a heavy strikeout artist in a different country.
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Very few current MLB players are more streaky than Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos. The 31-year-old righty is either unbeatable or looks like he's never getting another hit. Castellanos is trending well in the past seven games, batting .333 with a .709 SLG, and he even hit a walk-off earlier in the week.
No numbers you look at for Castellanos in 2024 will pop off the page. There's no sugarcoating how much he struggled early on, but he's batting .239 with a .745 OPS against left-handers. While it's not an amazing number, it's better than his numbers against righties, and I really think he's turning a corner.
Castellanos has also done well against the Mets' starter, Sean Manaea, during his career, batting .400 with a pair of home runs in a small sample of 10 at-bats.
Phillies ML (-150)
To nobody's surprise, based on my other two plays, I'll grab the Phillies moneyline for the last leg of this SGP. The pitching advantage is stark, as Suárez is among baseball's best pitchers while Manaea is hit-or-miss with a 3.63 ERA and is fresh off allowing six runs to the Diamondbacks. Another issue for Manaea is his inability to pitch past the sixth inning. He's finished a full six innings just three times all year and has yet to pitch into the seventh inning.
An area of concern for Manaea is the Phillies' success hitting left-handed pitching. The Phillies' offense is generally awesome, posting the sixth-best wRC+ in baseball. Left-handers don't give them any struggles, as they hit .258 with a .750 SLG when facing left-handers.
Even the Phillies' two lefty sluggers, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, have more than held their own against southpaws. Schwarber has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a shocking .313 AVG with a .900 OPS, while Harper hits for a higher average but is less of a power threat than against right-handers. It's not a surprise since Harper shortens his stroke and looks to put the ball in play more.
The Phillies really have epitomized the "next man up" mentality. Once Trea Turner went down, it felt like they struggled in his stead. However, it's been anything but, as Edmundo Sosa has morphed into one of the Phillies' top hitters with a 150 wRC+.
The Mets will rely on their bullpen for at least four innings of work, which is how the Phillies can strike if the offense can't solve Manaea. Since May 15, the Mets bullpen owns a 4.73 ERA and 4.77 FIP, indicating it's not just a stretch of bad luck. It's just a poor bullpen and the shoulder injury to Edwin Diaz puts more stress on Reed Garrett, Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman, all of whom have given up games recently.
The juice isn't as strong as I imagined here. I figured the odds would favor the Phillies by -170/-180, but it appears the odds have shortened since Suárez is coming off an injury. At -150, it feels like a terrific spot for the Phillies to inch us closer to a winning SGP.
