Phillies vs Mets Odds & Picks: Saturday London Prediction
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
The MLB London Series over/under between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies is set pretty high (10) for a game involving National League Cy Young Candidate Ranger Suárez.
That said, both the Mets and Phillies have excelled against left-handers. Suárez has been elite, but eventually, he could see a bit of regression.
His opponent will be Sean Manaea, who has been pretty steady over the past few years. Manaea is serviceable, but he allows a good number of fly balls and puts runners on via the walk.
With the wind blowing out at London Stadium and a relatively short center-field wall, there could be runs aplenty in Phillies vs Mets on Saturday.
Philadelphia Phillies
Suárez has been nothing short of exceptional this season. He has always been elite at maintaining a high ground-ball rate, but his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate have improved dramatically since 2023. He can throw deep into a game, but isn't infallible. For instance, he gave up four earned runs and walked four against the Colorado Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field. This could end up being a similar start.
The Phillies have a loaded lineup. They have a 112 wRC+, a 9.3% walk rate and a 21.2% strikeout rate off of left-handers over the past month. Additionally, eight of Philadelphia's active hitters have an xwOBA over .320. That's noteworthy with runs expected in this matchup against Manaea.
Now, in relief, the Phillies have been great. They only have two arms with an xFIP above 4.00 and have held a sub-3.10 xFIP as a unit in the past month.
New York Mets
Manaea is nothing to write home about, but can get the job done. The veteran lefty has an ERA of 3.63 and an xERA of 4.05. His walk rate is over 9%, so the Phillies should have opportunities to get on base, if they are patient. The kicker here is that Manaea tends to yield some hard contact. His ground-ball rate ranks in the ninth percentile, but with the wind blowing out in a hitter-friendly park, the Phillies could push across some runs early. The Phillies don't have an alarmingly high ground-ball rate, so they likely won't be doing any favors for Manaea.
The Mets, shockingly, have hammered lefties in the past month. They own a 129 wRC+ with a 7.9% walk rate and a strikeout rate a touch above 20%. They also have nine batters with an xwOBA over .330. In short, this is the type of lineup that can get to Suárez.
New York’s relievers have been decent lately. In the past month, the bullpen has a 4.33 xFIP, but there are four relievers with an xFIP under 4.00.
Phillies vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The London Series is an exciting time for baseball. This matchup between the Phillies and Mets is a classic rivalry that'll be shown to more international fans. New fans should be ready for a plethora of runs. So, bet the over from 9.5 to 11.
