Phillies vs Tigers Odds | Tuesday Expert Predictions
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7 -122o / +102u | -118 |
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7 -122o / +102u | -102 |
Baseball fans will get a glimpse at a pair of Cy Young candidates on Tuesday with Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers taking on Ranger Suárez and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Skubal has been electric, even if he has not been as lockdown of a starter in his last two starts. Suárez is still keeping the ball on the ground and is one of the few pitchers in baseball matching Skubal’s peripheral metrics.
Given the ability of both pitchers to throw deep into games, the Under should certainly be in play. Find my Phillies vs Tigers prediction on the over/under below.
Philadelphia Phillies
Suárez ranks in the 90th percentile in ground-ball rate. Some ground-ball pitchers usually excel at keeping the ball on the ground but may yield some hard contact. That is not the case for Suárez, who holds an Average Exit Velocity of 86.9 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 77th percentile. Moreover, Suárez strikes out 26.8% of batters while only walking 5.4%. He has dramatically improved at limiting walks, which has allowed him to throw five-plus innings almost every start.
The Phillies own a 119 wRC+ off lefties in June. They have not struck out much (20%) and are walking more than 8% of the time. However, not every lefty they have faced is the caliber of Skubal. Philadelphia has six bats above a .320 xwOBA, but Edmundo Sosa won't play each day with Trea Turner back in the mix.
The Phillies’ bullpen has been electric. They only have one active arm in relief above a 4.00 xFIP, with a 3.18 xFIP as a unit, a strikeout rate of nearly 30% and a walk rate under 7%.
Detroit Tigers
Skubal may be the only pitcher in baseball better than Suárez. He has a 29.2% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. He only went four innings in his last outing, but otherwise he has gone at least six in all but two starts. That will help prevent manager A.J. Hinch from going to the weaker parts of Detroit’s relief staff.
The Tigers hold a 103 wRC+ in June off southpaws. They usually have one of the lowest ground-ball rates in baseball, but Suárez could influence that with his ability to keep the ball on the ground. In that timeframe against lefties, Detroit ranks in the middle of the pack in ground-ball rate, so look for Suárez to look like he does in most starts. The Tigers do have several bats above a .320 xwOBA off lefties, but they haven't seen nearly as many pitches from that angle. That is yet another reason why Suárez may excel.
The Tigers have a bullpen xFIP in June of 3.90 with a walk rate under 7%. Five of their relievers are under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so when Skubal goes more than five innings, the innings Detroit’s staff will cover should be mostly scoreless.
Phillies vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these pitchers are excellent, so going with the Under just makes sense. Yes, it is a low total, and the Phillies have hit well all season, but Skubal and Suárez are a different breed. For an Under, it is always helpful when a relief staff can hold its own, and fortunately, both teams rarely walk hitters out of the bullpen. This should further assist with a low-scoring affair.
Take these two Cy Young candidates to do what they have already done thus far and keep the opponent off balance. Bet the Under from 7.5 to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5 (Bet to 7)
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