Yet another day of Paul Skenes, as the Pittsburgh Pirates hope to bounce back after the Milwaukee Brewers secured a 9-0 win in the second game of this three game set, after losing the first game.
Read below for my Pirates vs. Brewers same game parlay (SGP) for Thursday, July 11.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Pirates vs Brewers Same Game Parlay: Thursday, July 11
- Under 8 (-102)
- Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Parlay Odds: +700 (DraftKings)
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Special, electric, historically good: three words that fit the performance from Paul Skenes so far. Skenes is a strikeout artist, posting a 11.83 K/9, which ranks second in baseball for pitchers with at least 50 innings — only behind the White Sox Garrett Crochet.
Of course, over 7.5 Ks is juiced to -145, which is still a bit undervalued since Skenes recorded eight or more strikeouts in seven of 10 MLB starts, and went over that total in three straight games. Betting on Skenes strikeout props has been a profitable prop throughout his rookie year, and I’m looking to go back to the well one final time before the break.
Under 8 (-102)
I’d expect runs to be scarce in this one. Paul Skenes is possibly the National League All-Star starter, and he’s quite arguably one of the most dominant rookie pitchers EVER.
The 21-year-old Skenes owns a dynamite 2.12 ERA with 78 strikeouts in only 59 innings, showing he was well worth the first pick in last year's draft. Skenes is tasked with his first matchup against the Brewers, an NL Central foe he’s yet to face.
The Brewers lineup that isn’t nearly as strong with Joey Ortiz’s injury. Ortiz was a nice complement to the bottom of the order —- and his replacement, Andruw Monsaterio isn’t a good hitter. They rank 16th in MLB with a 103 wRC+ since July 10th, so while it’s not a bad offense, it’s nothing special either.
Lately, only three players have kept the Brewers offense above water — Christian Yelich leads with a 270 wRC+ since July 1st, William Contreras has a 185 wRC+ and rookie Jackson Churio owns a 125 wRC+ this month. Beyond that trio, it’s mostly dead weight occupying the other six lineup spots. Skenes should cruise through this top-heavy lineup, besides a mis-step or two against Yelich or Contreras.
The Pirates offense hasn’t fared much better, as they own a 95 wRC+ since June 10th, despite Bryan Reynolds, Joshua Palacios and Rowdy Tellez posting wRC+’s above 170. It seems strange — this offense is still mediocre, despite three players hitting at elite levels, along with O’Neil Cruz also adding an 111 wRC+.
Well, they are also very top-heavy. That’s one thing to write in the middle circle of the Pirates/Brewers Venn diagram. You look at the lineup and the weakspots stand out. Neither Joey Bart or Yasmani Grandal hit consistently, Ke’Bryan Hayes is nearly an auto out, Jared Triolo shouldn’t be a regular starter and Andrew McCutchen is well past his prime.
I think grabbing under eight runs is a solid play, even with Aaron Civale pitching for the Brewers. Milwaukee brought in Civale from the Rays with injuries taking out several starters. It’s not like the Brewers saw something in the hidden stats that made Civale a steal — the Rays would’ve known that.
He’s just healthy and eats innings, it’s the same reason Dallas Keuchel is occupying innings. Civale owns 5.18 ERA and 4.80 FIP with blue circles littered on his baseball savant page isn’t ideal for an under. But I really don’t trust this Pirates offense, and Skenes should shut the Brewers bats down to keep the scoring at a minimum.
Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
It took time for Christian Yelich to round back into All-Star form, following his ridiculous MVP season back in 2019. It’s not like Yelich was terrible the past couple years —- he was an above league average bat, but not an All-Star caliber player or a player the Brewers can ride for a deep playoff run.
However, things have changed in 2024, as Yelich owns a 167 wRC+, which is just seven points worse than his career-best 174 wRC+ from 2019.
What we’re seeing from Yelich is no fluke — he ranks in the 91st percentile in hard hit rate, 98th in xBA, 88th in xSLG, and 85th in exit velocity. He’s hammering the ball, and it has led to results that should led to MVP votes.
The sweet-swinging Yelich cracked four home runs in his past 15 games and recorded 2+ total bases in six of his nine games in July.
He’s probably the hottest hitter in MLB currently, and I’m not sure even Skenes has the power to hold Yelich down for an entire game. Even if Skenes can limit Yelich, the Pirates inconsistent relief corps will give him a shot for an extra base hit.
