Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Pick
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 8 -103/-115 | -1.5 +130 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8 -103/-115 | +1.5 -155 |
Let's dive into the MLB odds and get into a Pirates vs Brewersprediction in our Thursday MLB betting preview for July 11.
Pirates vs. Brewers odds for Thursday are on the move as the Pirates are -132 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 for this series finale at American Family Field. However, for my Pirates vs Brewers pick, I'll be looking at a different market. I see value on Pittsburgh's run line (-1.5).
Right-hander Paul Skenes takes the mound for Pittsburgh, while Milwaukee hands the ball to right-hander Aaron Civale.
See how I think Pirates vs. Brewers will play out in my Thursday MLB betting preview below.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Skenes continues to run away in the NL Rookie of the Year race. The 2023 No. 1 overall pick is 5-0 through 10 starts with a commanding 2.12 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as he ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate. Pittsburgh has won seven of the right-hander's 10 starts, with five of those seven wins coming by at least two-runs.
Following Skenes is a bullpen due for positive regression. Despite ranking 25th in ERA, the Pirates' relief staff ranks 10th in FIP.
Meanwhile, this pitching staff should receive plenty of run support. Pittsburgh's lineup boasts a .254 BA, a .475 SLG and a .325 wOBA through 62 combined career plate appearances against Civale.
Milwaukee Brewers
Civale has gone through plenty of his own issues this season. He is 2-6 through 18 starts with a fade-worthy 5.18 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team he is 0-1 against with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over their past three meeting.
Also, the Pirates won two of those three games by at least two-runs. Meanwhile, Milwaukee's bullpen is due for regression.
Despite ranking fifth in ERA, the Brewers' relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in both FIP and xFIP. Run support could also come at a premium, as it often does for teams facing Skenes for the first time.
Pirates vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The starting pitching edge clearly goes to Pittsburgh. Skenes outranks Civale in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
On paper, Milwaukee possesses the stronger bullpen. However, the Pirates' relief staff is due for positive regression while the Brewers' is due for regression.
Those two dynamics crossing paths simultaneously bodes well for Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee possesses the better lineup, but it's their first time seeing Skenes. Meanwhile, the Pirates have torched Civale.
So, if you like Pittsburgh, would you rather lay -132 on the moneyline or take a shot on the run line at +125?
Both are fine plays, but I'd rather take a shot at the bigger payout. Sixteen of the Pirates' past 21 wins have come by at least two-runs.
Pick: Pirates -1.5 | Play to -120 |
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