Pirates vs Cubs Odds & Prediction
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-120 | 7.5 +102o / -122u | -1.5 +145 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+100 | 7.5 +102o / -122u | +1.5 -175 |
The Pittsburgh Pirates are slumping. As of Thursday night, the Bucs are only a game up on both the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. Pittsburgh, however, has a light at the end of the tunnel because its pitching staff is decent. Paul Skenes will throw, once again, against the Chicago Cubs — this time at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon.
Kyle Hendricks will be Skenes' counterpart. The Cubs right-hander put together a nice performance against the Pirates on Mother's Day.
The Cubs are about average when it comes to hitting righties, and Pittsburgh is flailing now. With that being said, the under could be in play with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field on Friday. Find my MLB betting preview for Skenes' second MLB start, which includes my Pirates vs Cubs prediction on the over/under.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Skenes is one of the most highly-touted pitching prospects ever, but he did not fare well in his MLB debut. He allowed three runs six hits and two walks over four innings, though he did strike out seven.
He gets a chance at redemption on Friday. This year in the minors, Skenes held a strikeout rate above 40% with a walk rate under 8%. His xwOBA was an unbelievable .214.
On offense, the outlook isn't so bright for the Bucs. They have a 59 wRC+ and a 25.3% strikeout rate over the last month against right-handed pitching. Pittsburgh only has four hitters above a .350 xwOBA off of righties in that timeframe, with the rest of the active roster placing under .285.
In relief, the Bucs have a 4.55 xFIP over the last month. Walks have been a major issue for their relief staff as a unit at over 12%. Kyle Nicolas, David Bednar and Hunter Stratton are under the 4.00 mark, so we'll see if Skenes can make it through five innings untouched this time.
Chicago Cubs
Hendricks was unbelievably bad before hitting the injured list with a lower back strain on April 23. However, given the Pirates' hitting struggles, he's shown he can at least take them on. The wind blowing in is an added bonus for the soft-tossing righty.
Hendricks ranks in the 87th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity, and his ground-ball rate is above average. If he limit the walks, he should be more than fine against Pittsburgh.
The Cubs have a 94 wRC+, 9.2% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate off of righties over the last month. They are patient, but Skenes should be able to miss some bats. Chicago has six batters eclipsing a .335 xwOBA in that timeframe against righties, but there is a steep drop-off in the rest of the batting order.
The Cubs relief staff has had their question marks this year. However, they have a 3.97 xFIP over the last month, so things are looking up. They only have a few active arms under a 4.00 xFIP as they have been decimated by injuries. That said, this should be enough against a weak Pittsburgh lineup.
Pirates vs Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Skenes should get better, and it could start Friday with another shot at Chicago. Hendricks will remain steady with the weaker lineup against him and continue to manufacture grounders and weak contact.
Both bullpens should have enough to lock down the game. This should be a low-scoring game if the forecast holds with the wind, especially. Take the under from 8 to 7.5.
