Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction & Picks Wednesday
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 8 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +175 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 8 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -210 |
The Pittsburgh Pirates (28-32) and Paul Skenes will host the Los Angeles Dodgers (38-24) at PNC Park on Wednesday.
The Pirates won the first game of this series, 1-0, and look to earn a series win behind their newfound ace. Pittsburgh currently sits 7 1/2 games back of the NL Central lead, but just 1.5 games out of an NL Wild Card spot.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have the second-best record in the NL and lead the NL West by seven games.
Despite this difference in records, the Pirates are -120 moneyline favorites due to a lopsided pitching matchup. The over/under for this game is set at 8 (-120o / +100u). This marks just the sixth time this season the Dodgers enter a game as underdogs.
See what angle I plan to take on my Pirates vs Dodgers prediction for Wednesday.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes entered the year as one of the top prospects in baseball, and he's living up to expectations.
Skenes boasts a 2.45 ERA over his first 22 innings as a Major Leaguer. He's amassed a whopping 30 strikeouts through his first four starts, good for an outstanding 36% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile of qualified pitchers.
Furthermore, Skenes ranks above the 85th percentile of arms in whiff rate, chase rate, ground-ball rate, walk rate and barrel rate allowed. He's also the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball, with an average fastball velocity above 99.
He has a 113 Stuff+ mark and 107 Location+ mark across his arsenal. Despite a small sample size, this would give him a 112 Pitching+ mark, which leads all players with at least 20 innings pitched.
Since his first start, when he pitched only four innings, Skenes has pitched six innings and earned a quality start in each of his last three outings, including one in which he didn’t allow a single hit.
Skenes is the real deal.
The Dodgers will be the toughest test he has faced yet, so it will be interesting to see if he is able to replicate this success against one of the best lineups in the league.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been a major weakness this season. They rank 27th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, 26th in ISO, and 26th in strikeout rate. However, they do rank seventh in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and 14th in exit velocity.
These signs all point to Pittsburgh being a bit unlucky in terms of quality of contact compared to results. By expected wOBACON, they're an above-average offense (13th).
Additionally, they're better against southpaws, which will play in their favor against James Paxton today. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in wRC+, 15th in wOBA, and eighth in ISO against lefties.
Los Angeles Dodgers
James Paxton appears on the surface to be having a career rejuvenation this season. His 3.29 ERA is the lowest since he was viewed as a budding young star in Seattle in 2017.
However, the peripheral numbers for Paxton don’t tell the same story.
Paxton boasts a 5.24 expected ERA and a 5.36 FIP. He's stranded 85.4% of runners despite a career average of 73.9%.
Paxton ranks 110th in Stuff+ out of 112 starters with 50-plus innings. He is also 98th in Location+ and dead last in Pitching+. He's struck out only 31 batters in 52 innings this season. He’s not missing bats, ranking in the eighth percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate, while also missing the zone, ranking in the 11th percentile in walk rate.
The left-hander has also been getting hard this year. He ranks in the 40th percentile bin arrel rate, 36th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 47th percentile in average exit velocity. He ranks in the 29th percentile in ground-ball rate, so most of his offerings are smacked in the air.
Paxton’s results don’t match the reality. I'm looking for ways to fade Paxton both in this matchup and going forward for the rest of the season.
The Dodgers offense is the best in the National League this season.
Their 120 wRC+ ranks second among MLB lineups. The Dodgers are near the league average in strikeout rate but have the second-best walk rate. They also rank in the top five in every batted ball and expected statistic.
Pirates vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dodgers have the much better offense, but they will face off against the electric Paul Skenes. I’m interested in seeing how he does in this matchup, but I’m not confident in the outcome of this battle.
Instead, I’m looking to the other side and wanting to fade James Paxton. He has pitched like one of the worst starters in baseball this season but has been rewarded with good results.
Conversely, the Pirates’ offense has had the opposite problem: They have hit the ball hard but aren't getting the production you would expect.
With strikeouts not being an issue against Paxton, I think that there’s a chance we see the Pirates’ offense come to life today.
Therefore, I’ll take the Pirates F5 team total over 2.5.
This avoids betting against the Los Angeles bullpen, keeping the focus on fading Paxton.
Pick: Pirates F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120) | Play to 2.5 (+105)
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