Pirates vs. Phillies Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -120o / -102u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -120o / -102u | -162 |
Pirates pitcher Bailey Falter will face his former team Friday. Falter has typically been a back-end arm for his short MLB career, so this will be a significant test for the southpaw against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Cristopher Sánchez will be the opposing starter, and some would say Sánchez was partially responsible for forcing Falter out of the rotation in Philadelphia. Sánchez is the superior pitcher here, but the Pirates have done well off lefties this season. Last year, the Phillies were better than they have been against left-handers, so this team should turn around.
Let's dive into the MLB odds and make a Pirates vs. Phillies prediction and pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Falter has always had trouble with keeping the ball on the ground, which does not bode well for a southpaw who does not throw hard. He limits walks, but not throwing hard almost always means a pitcher is not notching many strikeouts. Last year, Philadelphia struck out over 25% of the time against lefties, but Falter essentially takes away that weakness.
The Pirates have done well off left-handers in the batter’s box this year. Last year, they only had about three or four strong bats when a lefty took the mound against them, but adding Rowdy Tellez and Michael A. Taylor, as well as signing Andrew McCutchen again, will help. In fact, Pittsburgh has now taken 165 collective plate appearances off lefties this year with a 13.3% walk rate and 139 wRC+. This team might have filled a crucial hole from 2023.
In relief, though, the Pirates' anchor has not done well. David Bednar will eventually get his head on straight, but the righty owns a 12.46 ERA over five games so far. Aroldis Chapman could be in a good spot to see meaningful innings, but he has been shaky in recent years, too. Josh Fleming and Roansy Contreras are decent, but bullpen depth could be an issue against a powerful Phillies lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies
Sánchez will figure his issues out, but unlike 2023, his start to 2024 has not been ideal. Last year, he held a 4% walk rate and 24.2% strikeout rate with a 3.74 xERA. His xERA is still below 4.00 thus far this season, but he has walked more hitters and is allowing much more hard contact. He still keeps the ball on the ground, but he has not done so at the elite clip he did in 2023.
The Phillies are potent. This team should match up well with Falter, even with some early-season slumping. This is the same lineup that stacked up 76 homers (second in MLB) in 2023 off lefties. This team also ranked in the bottom 10 in ground-ball rate in 2023, so Falter should have his hands full. At the moment, the Phillies are a touch above average in 176 plate appearances at 104 wRC+ off southpaws, but a game with Falter pitching should boost their output.
The Phillies' relief staff has been a bit unreliable early on this year. Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado have been shaky, and those two have been fixtures in high-leverage innings in relief for the Phillies. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Yunior Marte and Gregory Soto boast sub-4.00 ERAs in a small sample size, but the go-to arms late in games have not necessarily all gotten the job done yet. The Pirates could capitalize because of those issues.
Pirates vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both the Pirates and Phillies can hammer left-handed pitchers. Pittsburgh has a different look to its lineup, but Philadelphia is just the same and can still hit the ball.
Both starters have had their issues and the bullpens have question marks as well. All of those factors point to this game going over the total with the power in these lineups. Take the Over and bet it to 10.
Pick: Over 9 (Bet to 10)
