Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Pick
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+124 | 9 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -170 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-146 | 9 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +140 |
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be going on the road to take on their in-state rival Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night to start a four-game series.
Jared Jones is on the mound for the Pirates and has flashed enormous potential through the first two starts of his Major League career. He has looked fantastic but it's possible that the market has not yet caught up to him, leaving a potential edge in this game.
The Pirates are off to a hot start while the Phillies have had mixed results to this point in the season. Will Pittsburgh be able to keep the momentum going or will Philadelphia be able to rebound from their 6-6 start?
Read on for my Pirates vs. Phillies pick and prediction for Thursday, April 11.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jared Jones has been one of the more impressive pitchers in the league to begin his rookie campaign. The former second round pick has thrown 11.2 innings and struck out 17 batters already this year. His 3.86 ERA doesn’t pop off the page but Jones has been impressive nonetheless.
This really shows in a metric like Stuff+. Jones’ figure in Stuff+ is currently 138, which is the second-highest mark in the entire league. He also leads the league in Pitching+ at 114. Jones is very early in his career, but it looks like the Pirates could have a potential ace on their hands.
Pittsburgh’s offense has also helped power them to their 9-3 record to begin the season. This offense ranks fifth in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. They walk at the third-highest rate in the majors, which has helped them boost their OBP considerably.
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Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez will be taking the bump for the Phillies today. The 28-year old lefty comes into this start with a 4.09 ERA and 4.12 FIP.
Through two starts, Suarez’s stuff appears to be about the same as last year. He has an 88 Stuff+ and 105 Location+ compared to 85 and 101 in those two stats last season. He profiles as a location-based pitcher that doesn’t walk a ton of hitters.
This year his walk rate has dipped from 8.3% in his career to just 2.4% while his strikeout rate has gone from 22% last year to 26.8% so far. It’s hard to say whether this has come from a meaningful change to anything Suarez is doing or if this is just some early season variance.
Philadelphia’s offense has struggled to begin the year. They rank 24th in runs scored, 23rd in wRC+, and 20th in wOBA. They are striking out 24.9% of the time, which is the eighth-highest rate in baseball.
Pirates vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think Jones is the best pitcher in this matchup. Through his first two starts he has struck out 10 and seven batters, despite not going more than six innings in either outing.
The Phillies rank 29th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Their Statcast numbers also don’t provide much hope as the offense ranks 25th in average exit velocity, 19th in HardHit%, and 28th in Barrel%.
Pittsburgh ranks second in the league in xwOBA while the Phillies are just 23rd. I believe the Pirates have the edge here both offensively and with starting pitching, so I will be taking the Pirates moneyline for the first five innings.
Pick: Pirates F5 ML (+115)
