The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 26, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Diamondbacks have lost five straight games and are now 26–27 on the season, which makes this series crucial. On Monday, Andrew Heaney of the Pirates will face Ryne Nelson of the Snakes.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks picks: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5
My Pirates vs Diamondbacks best bet is the over on Arizona's total for this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -120o / +100u | +155 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9 -120o / +100u | -185 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) | Stat | RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.91/4.37 | ERA /xERA | 4.60/4.28 |
| 4.04/4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 3.56/3.51 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 9.2% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 44.1% | GB% | 39.1% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 102 | Location+ | 96 |
John Feltman’s Pirates vs Diamondbacks Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Worst Offense in Baseball
The Pirates' offense continues to struggle as the season creeps towards June. They're last in the MLB in runs scored per game, which is shocking, considering the Colorado Rockies are on a record pace for losses in a single season.
Pittsburgh only scores three runs per contest, which won't get the job done.
The Pirates send Heaney to the mound on Monday. He's had a respectable season thus far, entering with a 2.91 ERA, but his metric suggests he's due for regression.
He's still sporting a below-average strikeout and whiff rate, which isn't a good sign against an excellent Arizona Diamondbacks offense. He's generated a decent amount of chases, but his opponents’ xBA is .265, a below-average mark.
The matchup against Nelson isn’t the worst for the Pirates' offense, but given how awful their bats have been, it seems like any matchup is tough for this group. The Pirates are batting .206 on the road thus far and .226 against right-handers.
Outside of O’Neil Cruz, this offense is a complete dud right now, and they’re too unreliable offensively to be worthy of a wager.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Nice Matchup Against Heaney
The Snakes have lost five straight, and they must start to rattle off some wins before they get too buried in the NL Playoff race. I like their chances to snap their losing streak with a favorable offensive matchup against Heaney.
As I mentioned, he's due for negative regression moving forward, and the D-Backs have been a much better offensive team at home.
It’s also a supreme matchup for Ketel Marte, who's 4-for-10 against Heaney with two home runs against him in his lifetime.
They're batting .250 against southpaws thus far, and Heaney is giving up hard contact at a below-average clip. He isn’t missing many bats, so it’s an excellent spot for the D-Backs to bounce back.
The problem is: I’m not sure what to expect from Nelson, even in a plus matchup on the mound.
Nelson enters the game with a 4.60 ERA but has a 22% chase rate and a 21% whiff rate. Those are low percentages for his current 23% strikeout rate, so he's been fortunate in that department.
It’s a steep price for the moneyline, so I think it’d be wise to stay away from that betting angle as much as I believe the Snakes will turn things around.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll target the Arizona offense and take its team total over. Heaney’s 2.91 ERA is unsustainable, and Arizona is fifth in the MLB in runs scored per game.
I love the matchup for Marte, but 1B Josh Naylor also sports excellent numbers against Heaney.
Besides those two, this lineup is full of mashers who should take advantage of the soft-tossing left-hander.
The Pirates' offense is atrocious, but I feel much more confident in the D-Backs' lineup.
Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 (BetMGM)
