The Pittsburgh Pirates (38-54) and Kansas City Royals (44-48) will meet in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSKC.
Mitch Keller and Seth Lugo will start on the mound tonight for Pittsburgh and Kansas City, respectively. The Royals are -140 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Pirates are +115 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8 total runs.
Continue below for my Pirates vs Royals predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, July 8, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Pirates vs Royals Prediction, Picks
- Pirates vs Royals pick: Under 8 Runs (-115)
My Pirates vs Royals best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Royals Odds for Tuesday, July 8
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -105o / -115u | -140 |
- Pirates vs Royals run line: Pirates +1.5 (-185), Royals -1.5 (+150)
- Pirates vs Royals over/under: 8 total runs
- Pirates vs Royals moneyline: Royals -140, Pirates +115
- Pirates vs Royals best bet: Under 8 (-115)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals MLB Preview
Mitch Keller is on a good run: five straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed.
Of course, when you're pitching for the Pirates, that does not necessarily translate to many wins — you can ask Paul Skenes about that.
Keller is coming off a great outing against the Cardinals, giving up only one run and five hits across seven innings with seven strikeouts.
The Pittsburgh offense has been poor all season, but even by their standards, their current form is appalling. They suffered a shutout in three of their past six games and scored one, three and five runs on the other three.
They will have to deal with Kansas City starter Seth Lugo, who holds a 2.11 ERA in his past seven starts.
The Pirates are a significant reason why the under is recommended for tonight, but so is the Kansas City offense.
The Royals are 27th in wRC+ with 83 and 28th in ISO with .127.
Even after yesterday's 9-run output, Kansas City should not be a threat to Keller.
Additionally, we have a weather angle for this game.
Pirates vs Royals Betting Predictions
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, ranging from 6 to 29%.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pirates vs Royals Best Bet
- Under 8 (-115)
Pirates vs Royals Betting Trends
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