Two of MLB's exciting young arms will square off on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium as Paul Skenes of the Pirates takes on River Ryan of the Dodgers.
Skenes gets his second shot at the Dodgers after allowing three runs — including a home run to superstar Shohei Ohtani — and striking out eight at PNC Park on June 5. In a tiny sample, Ryan holds an ERA of 1.72 and has become an important piece in a wobbly Dodgers rotation that is still without Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler.
Read below for my Pirates vs Dodgers prediction and expert MLB pick for Saturday night.
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction
Nicholas Martin's bet:
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +150 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -180 |
Pirates-Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Skenes (PIT) | Stat | Ryan (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 1.99/2.59 | ERA /xERA | 1.72/4.53 |
| 2.70/2.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.94/4.75 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 26.6% | K-BB% | 7.8% |
| 49.5% | GB% | 46.3% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 119 |
| 104 | Location+ | 93 |
Nicholas Martin's Pirates at Dodgers Preview
Pirates Betting Preview: Paul Skenes the Stopper?
The Pirates have the right guy on the mound as they look to snap a five game losing streak in this matchup, and it's safe to say Skenes should have a little extra juice in this matchup as he makes his Dodger Stadium debut.
Skenes has remained in pretty dominant form of late. Over the last five starts he holds an ERA of 1.87 with a FIP of 2.82 and an xFIP of 3.35. He's struck out 9.89 batters per nine in that span, and holds a ground-ball rate of 53.2%.
The Pirates offense could struggle with a hard throwing righty here based on their recent splits. Since July 1, Pittsburgh holds a wRC+ of 92 versus RHP, which ranks 26th in MLB. It has struck out 22.6% of the time, and holds a hard-hit rate of 33.7%.
Ryan's pitch mix also does not look like a good fit for the Pirates offense. Pittsburgh has struggled against fastballs this season (-16.7 wFB), and has also been particularly awful dealing with sliders (-17.8 wSL).
Dodgers Betting Preview: Don't Sleep On River Ryan
While Skenes Dodger Stadium debut is the big story here, how Ryan can continue to perform the rest of the way could prove to be a critical storyline for the scuffling NL favorites.
River Ryan, Wicked Sliders…and is fired up. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/VGO7i0oCXZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 28, 2024
Ryan has greatly overachieved his 4.53 xERA to this point, but that mark does not need to be weighted too greatly given the sample size. It's no surprise watching his outings to see elite ratings on two of his pitches, and that batters are hitting just .167 against his slider, and .125 against his curveball.
While the talent on the roster suggests things should improve moving forward, the Dodgers bullpen has been a concern recently. Over the last 30 days they have pitched to an ERA of 5.00, with an xFIP of 4.00. After an off day Thursday the unit remains in good shape, and should have all high leverage arms available if needed.
The Dodgers haven't been as effective versus righties as lefties, but still have hit RHP well over the last month of action with a wRC+ of 116. They have struck-out 25.8% of the time in that span though, and hold a 21st ranked hard-hit rate of 30.8%.
Pirates-Dodgers Prediction: Going Under
Even a slightly lesser form of Skenes has been enough to post dominant results recently, and I want to bet on him having a good showing in this big spot against a Dodgers lineup which hasn't been as entirely dominant of late. Despite his 6-1 record Skenes has not always received a lot of run support, and it wouldn't be surprising to see that trend continue here.
Ryan has the stuff to post high quality numbers this season, and the Pirates offense sets up as an ideal target for him to continue dominating. This game is being hyped as a pitchers duel, and I think it lives up to the billing and we see two marquee starters put on a show. At –115 odds, I see value backing the game to go under 8.
Moneyline (ML) History
Over/Under
| overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 60-53-1 | 33-23-1 | 27-30 | 54-44-1 | 6-8 |
| 54-58-3 | 26-30-2 | 28-28-1 | 22-24-1 | 32-33-2 |
As noted I like the under based upon this pitching matchup and the total of 8, though it is interesting to see that Dodger Stadium has been more of a high event ballpark than oddsmakers have expected this season.
