Rangers vs. Astros Odds, Pick
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 8 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -176 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 8 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +142 |
The Rangers and Astros both entered this season with high expectations after meeting in the ALCS last year with the Rangers winning it all. However, both teams got off to slow starts this season and are now fighting their way back into the race. The Astros have the best record (24-11) in the MLB since June 1. The Rangers remain under .500, but they have won seven of their last 10 games.
The Rangers have pulled within five games of the Astros for the second place in the AL West and wild card positioning. A sweep heading into the All-Star break would give them a ton of momentum as they try to chase down the Astros and Mariners, who hold a two-game lead in the division. However, the Astros have won four of the first seven meetings thus far this far with today’s game being the first since April.
With both teams playing at a high level entering the series, there could be runs aplenty. Particularly with tonight’s pitching matchup between Andrew Heaney vs. Hunter Brown. Read along for my Rangers vs. Astros pick and prediction for Friday, July 12 at Minute Maid Park.
Texas Rangers
While the Rangers dropped Wednesday's series finale in Anaheim, their offense has been rolling in July. This month, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game, resembling last year’s attack. They have won five of their last six games and had several opportunities on Wednesday, but left nine men on base.
Corey Seager has a hit in 14 of his last 15 games and is hitting .357 with three home runs and nine RBI during that span. He will also be comfortable stepping in the batter's box against Hunter Brown as he is 4-for-10 (.400) with two doubles and two RBIs against him. Josh Smith has filled for Seager at times at short and primarily at third for Josh Jung, who remains on the IL. After eating below .200 in his first two MLB seasons, Smith is enjoying a breakout campaign as he is hitting .295 with eight home runs and 44 RBI.
Wyatt Langford has began to show why he was such a highly touted prospect and top four pick in last year's draft. He is hitting .333 with four home runs and 23 runs batted in over the last 30 days. However, Sunday's game may be the one to really keep an eye on him as he has four hits on each of the past two Sundays.
Meanwhile, Home Run Derby participant Adolis Garcia will surely get his share of boos in Houston tonight. After hitting five home runs in last year's ALCS, he is hitting .385 with a home run and seven RBI against Houston this season. Garcia has two home runs off Brown while Marcus Semien is 8-for-13 (.615) with a double against him.
The Rangers will give the ball to Andrew Heaney tonight, who has pitched well since April with a 2.96 ERA and 3.20 FIP. However, he has struggled against Houston of late. Since tossing two scoreless five inning starts against Houston in the first half last season, he has a 7.87 ERA in his last four starts against Houston.
Houston Astros
With Justin Verlander on the mend, Hunter Brown has stepped up and been one of the biggest reasons for the Astros turnaround. From June 8 to July 2, Brown went 5-0 with a 0.29 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 31 innings. However, considering his start to the season and career ERA, there was a feeling that Brown was due for some regression. That came in his last start as he allowed seven runs on 12 hits in six innings at Minnesota. He does not face the easiest opponent for a bounce back, but he is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA in four career regular season starts against the Rangers.
However, the way the Astros' offense has performed at Minute Maid Park, Brown may not have to pitch a gem tonight. Since June 1, the Astros are averaging 5.6 runs per game and they have upped that average to an even six runs in July. Tonight's game may favor the Astros' hitters as well. They have hit 65 of their 106 home runs at home this season, where they are hitting .269 with a .793 OPS. They are also hitting .261 against left-handed pitchers and several Astros have strong records against Andrew Heaney.
Jose Altuve is 14-for-43 (.326) with four doubles and two home runs against Heaney. Altuve is hitting .331 with 21 RBI since June 1 and was recently named an All-Star for the ninth time. In a contract year, Alex Bregman has come around after a slow start and he is 13-for-38 (.342) with three extra base hits against Heaney.
The biggest question for the Astros tonight rests on the status of Yordan Alvarez, who has been hit by a pitch three times in the last eight days and missed last night's game with hip tightness. He is slashing .342/.398/.561 against left-handed pitching and he is 9-for-19 (.474) with a home run and a double off Heaney. Houston still scored six runs without him last night, but manager Joe Espada would certainly prefer having his slugger available tonight.
Rangers vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Aside from the Minnesota start, Brown has been dominant of late while Heaney will be confident coming into this start as well. However, the teams are averaging over 11 runs per game combined in July.
Additionally, Heaney's last six starts against Houston have all had at least eight runs, while five of them reached 10 runs, and two of Brown's last three starts against Texas have had 10 runs scored in them. Six of the first seven meetings this season have had nine runs.
Despite these trends, the total tonight sits at eight. I would expect this total to be closer to 9.5 or 10 even, but I am not going to question it.
The over is 7-0-1 in the past eight meetings when the total sits at nine runs or less. With two hot offenses squaring off in Houston tonight, I would expect another high scoring battle and the over to cash once again.
