Rangers vs Phillies Odds, Picks
| Texas Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+143 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-170 | 8.5 -120o /+100u | -1.5 +118 |
Ranger Suárez has been one of the most effective starting pitchers in baseball this year and has done so by keeping the ball on the ground and inducing weak contact. For a soft-tossing pitcher, he also strikes out hitters at an impressive rate. His opponent will be Jon Gray and the Texas Rangers. Gray has received favorable results and is a solid starting pitcher, but some regression could be headed his way.
The Rangers vs. Phillies odds are bit too steep to take the Philadelphia Phillies, but the Phillies have a potent lineup, which should be able to string together some runs off of Gray and the Rangers' bullpen.
So, let's dig into this game and make a Rangers vs. Phillies pick.
Texas Rangers
Gray touts a 2.08 ERA, but his xERA is 3.73. His Average Exit Velocity is the highest it's been in years at 90.9 mph, which is one reason why I'm expecting regression. His walk rate and strikeout rate are both above average, but hard contact is a concern. Otherwise, he's a good starter.
Texas' lineup has been top-heavy against lefties over the past month. The Rangers own a paltry 5.8% walk rate and maintain an 90 wRC+. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jonah Heim have been great in the past month against lefties. Otherwise, the Rangers have just two bats with a xwOBA over .320. That won't get the job done against Suárez, who throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground.
Now, in relief, the Rangers hold a 4.26 xFIP in the past month. The Rangers hold a 13.1% walk rate and a strikeout rate a touch under 24%. They do have four relievers with an xFIP below 4.00, but if Gray exits early, which many pitchers do against the Phillies, Texas will be in a tough situation.
Philadelphia Phillies
Suárez has been fantastic. His fastball tops out in the low 90s, but that hasn't held him back. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 95th percentile, as does his Hard-Hit Rate. In contrast to Gray, Suárez holds an 84.1 mph Average Exit Velocity, the lowest mark he's had in his career. His ERA is 1.37 and his xERA is 2.30.
The Phillies are an offensive juggernaut. They own a 131 team wRC+ off of righties in the past month with a sub-19% strikeout rate and a 10.4% walk rate. They have only four hitters below a .330 xwOBA in the past month against righties. Basically, the entire lineup has hammered righties.
Philadelphia's bullpen has also been great. The Phillies have six arms below a 4.00 xFIP in the past month and also have the best team xFIP in that timeframe. Their 25.6% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate are just an added bonus. Seeing as Suárez doesn't hurt himself with extra pitches, he should be able to reduce the strain on relievers in this game.
Rangers vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Philadelphia is a heavy favorite against the defending champions for a reason. The Phillies have hit and pitched phenomenally all season. Philadelphia can put up runs early and often, so backing their offense is the best play for this game.
Bet the Phillies to go Over 4.5 runs and play that to five runs.
