Rangers vs. Reds Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -118 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +142 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -172 |
To kick off Wednesday's MLB slate, the NL Central's Cincinnati Reds host the AL West's Texas Rangers.
After losing each of the first two matchups of this three-game series, Texas looks to rebound and end the quick road trip on a high-note at Great American Ballpark.
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Rangers vs. Reds betting pick.
Texas Rangers
Despite the disappointing performance in this series, it has been a tremendous start to the campaign for the Texas Rangers. Texas has jumped out to a 14-9 record and is leading the AL West.
The offense is the primary reason for this early success as Texas ranks second in the AL in runs scored. Not only are the Rangers hitting well, but they aren't striking out, something likely to continue against right-hander Graham Ashcraft.
This season, Texas ranks ninth in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Wednesday's projected lineup, the punch-out is likely going to be difficult to come as six of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this year.
Cincinnati Reds
Ashcraft has put together a nice start to the year as he's 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through his first four starts. However, he has only recorded four strikeouts in each of his past two starts, a trend likely to continue against the Rangers.
Even if Ashcraft's strong start to the year continues (unlikely), he's not a guy who thrives because of the strikeout. The right-hander only possesses a three-pitch arsenal and throws either his cutter or slider 82.4% of the time.
In his debut season (2022), Ashcraft ranked in the bottom 6% of the league in K%. While he is pacing that number to begin this year, regression is likely.
Entering this matchup, Ashcraft ranks in the 43rd percentile or lower in K%, BB%, Whiff% and Chase Rate.
Rangers vs. Reds Betting Pick
Ashcraft's expected regression could come to fruition against the Rangers. This strikeout total can be found at 4.5 because not a single member Texas' roster has ever faced Ashcraft.
While that does give Ashcraft a slight edge, it shouldn't take too long for this lineup to figure out what he throws as he boasts a small three-pitch arsenal. The slider is by far his most effective weapon, but if he doesn't get the the first two pitches working against this competent lineup, then it'll be difficult to set up that slider and Ashcraft could have a tough outing.
