Rays vs Braves Saturday Odds & Prediction (6/15)
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 9 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -145 |
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 9 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +122 |
The Atlanta Braves picked up the victory last night in Game 1 of a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays. Chris Sale struggled in the first inning, but mostly cruised for the next six innings and had plenty of run support from the offense.
On Saturday, the Rays send Ryan Pepiot to the mound to take on veteran right-hander Charlie Morton. Tampa Bay's offense was silenced by Sale and the Braves pen in the opener — a recurring theme throughout the 2024 season.
Rays vs Braves odds have the Braves as -155 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (+100o/-120u). Find my betting prediction on the total below.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays offense is one of the biggest stories out of the AL East, as many did not expect what's been happening. Nobody predicted an offensive juggernaut, but the lack of productivity from the offense, most notably Randy Arozorena, has been the main reason why they can not sustain any consistent success.
They are bottom-five in batting average, runs scored, and dead last in home runs per game. It's been ugly to watch the offense on a nightly basis.
The Rays are hanging in on the AL Wild Card race, but they need to get it going before they dig themselves too far of a hole. Luckily, they have a lot to look forward to with their young right-handed hurler, Ryan Pepiot.
Pepiot enters today's afternoon tilt with an ERA over 4.00, but there is a lot of reason to think he will improve dramatically moving forward. The Braves lineup was struggling before last night's game, so there is optimism he can hold them at bay throughout the afternoon.
Pepiot's expected ERA is 2.98, and expected batting average from opposing hitters is .205. He is above the 85th percentile in whiff and chase rate, according to Statcast.
The problem is, I have my doubts that the Rays can provide any run-support for him. They are a tough and untrustworthy team to back right now.
Atlanta Braves
Sound the alarms, but the Braves learned to score runs in bunches again. Last night was the first time over the last couple of weeks that the Braves offense looked like the 2023 version of themselves.
It has been a real struggle without Ronald Acuna, and we now have to wait on the status of outfielder Michael Harris. Harris was removed from the game in the 1st inning, potentially missing some time with a hamstring injury.
The offense has depth, but things could get out of control on the injury front. I doubt that they can replicate last year's offensive statistics without Acuna and Harris, but luckily for them, Marcell Ozuna is having an MVP-type season.
Charlie Morton is a staple in the Braves rotation and he continues to be consistent. He will never have an ERA under 3.00 in his career again, but he'll always trot out there every five days, doing enough to be effective week in and week out.
He has excellent numbers against the current Rays offense, and they are struggling so much right now that I have a feeling he can give the Braves a lot of innings today. They are hitting .182 in 22 at-bats with 0 HRs, so as long as Morton keeps the walks in check he should fair just fine.
But with the injury to Harris, I can not back the Braves at their current price. I still do not have confidence the offense will return to form after one big night at the plate, and Pepiot is the type of pitcher who can give the offense fits all afternoon.
Rays vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's hard to sell me on either of these teams today, so I was happy to target the Under at 9. The market seems to be overrating the Braves at home, who are now short two All-Star hitters.
Let's not last night fool us, the Braves offense was tough to watch over the last couple of weeks. The Rays offense has been a tough watch all season, and due to Morton's success against them, I think that trend will continue.
Pepiot has really good stuff, and I expect better performances from him moving forward. Morton can certainly throw a clunker from time to time, but I doubt that happens against a bad Rays offense.
